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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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570 FXUS63 KLMK 191730 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 130 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Gradual warm up this weekend with increasing mugginess by early next week. * Shower and storm chances across southern KY this weekend, increasing everywhere early to mid week. Locally heavy rainfall possible by early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1109 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will continue to keep us dry for today but satellite imagery is already showing some high clouds associated with a weak disturbance to the south working into the Commonwealth. Also noticed that current dew points on the Kentucky Mesonet were higher than our going forecast. Went ahead and increased dew points into the afternoon. Other than that tweak not other changes to the forecast is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A surface low, sitting under an upper trough extending south through the eastern Great Lakes and continuing down the Mississippi River Valley to the Gulf of Mexico, is sliding eastward from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes region. This is keeping northeasterly winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky light under mostly clear skies. Dry air continues to get advected over the area, keeping dew points in the mid to upper 50s. Later today, clear skies will make for lots of sunshine. Some light cirrus will become more common as the day wears on, but temperature should have no problem reaching into the low to mid 80s. Dew points remain low climbing only into the mid 50s to low 60s, so it`s going to be another nearly perfect day. Tonight, winds will once again ease and go near calm, but mid-level moisture, near the 700mb level, will begin to work northward into south central Kentucky. This will bring 5-10 k foot ceilings to those in and around a line from Bowling Green to Lexington and to the southeast of that line. After around midnight, a 20-30% chance of precipitation will develop along the Kentucky/Tennessee border from near Bowling Green and points to the east. Low dew points should limit fogging. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Saturday - Sunday Night... The Ohio River Valley will remain positioned between two upper features through the weekend. An anomalous upper low will dig across eastern Canada, with a secondary cutoff low meandering over the lower Missouri River Valley. Meanwhile, a strong upper ridge will be positioned over the western Atlantic. We`ll see a steady feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture across the SE CONUS between these two features, with the northern fringes of the PWAT plume across southern and eastern KY. Farther north across southern IN and northern KY, a much drier airmass is expected (PWATs around 1", rather than 1.75" down south). Given the relative lack of moisture, and the upper trough axis displaced too far to the NW, expect the northern half of the CWA to stay dry. Will continue chance pops across the south, generally along and south of the Parkways through early Sunday evening. Better moisture arrives by Sunday night, and will have some small chances across the whole CWA by then. Slower moving heavy rainers will be the main concern with any shower or storm across our south through the weekend. We do stay on the northern fringes of the PWAT plume, so the highest values and best coverage will likely remain to the south and east of the CWA, but still can`t rule out some locally heavy amounts. Overall, temperatures will stay pretty near normal with values mostly in the mid to upper 80s. A few locations could touch 90 by Sunday. Look for lows in the low and mid 60s on Saturday night, and a little milder by Sunday night as the deeper moisture arrives. 65 to 70 degree readings expected by Sundrise Monday morning. Monday - Thursday... The same upper pattern still holds going into the early and mid week time frame, although the upper trough axis will be impinging a bit more into our region. This combined with the continued deep moist plume advecting around the NW periphery of the upper ridge, and the broad baroclinic zone from the western Gulf Coast states up through the mid Atlantic will be enough to allow for rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Will carry chances through the entire week, with the best coverage still across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. PWATs are expected to jump above 2" through the column with certain waves (most likely Monday and Tuesday), and give relative slow and rougly parallel movement to the surface boundary, locally heavy rain is possible. Given the prolonged nature of this pattern, am a bit concerned about some localized flash flooding. This will be more likely SE of the CWA, but we could get in the game with repeated rounds. Look for slightly below normal temps in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure remains in control of our weather during the forecast period providing VFR flight categories. While a system across the Deep South will work along a stalled boundary across the TN Valley this afternoon and overnight, we`ll only see high clouds work in associated with this system. Winds will remain generally around 5kts this afternoon before becoming more variable overnight and continuing into tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BTN SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BTN