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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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200 FXUS63 KLMK 171914 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 314 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and storms continue through this evening, with a northwest to southeast drying trend expected tonight behind a cold front. * Cooler temps and lower dewpoints expected Thursday and Friday. * Gradual warm up this weekend with increasing mugginess by early next week. Shower and storm chances also return in that time frame. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Scattered showers and storms are developing across the region as expected this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover earlier, we have been able to warm into the low 80s, but being in a pre-frontal airmass, we still have dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. We`ve been able to realize instability ranging from 1500-3000 J/kg, with the greatest thermodynamics across our south. Storms having been firing across south-central KY this early afternoon, which is where the higher CAPE values are located along with steeper low level lapse rates. Shear remains rather weak due to the upper level jet streaks well to our north, so still expect most storms to be unorganized. DCAPE is highest to our south, but any stronger cell could lay down some gusty winds. High PWATs will remain across the region until the front brings in drier air, so until the front passes through, any shower or storm will also be capable of torrential rain rates. Luckily, the current storms this afternoon appear to be progressive enough to minimize flooding concerns. However, any additional rounds of heavy showers or storms over the same areas this evening could result in a localized flood issue. For tonight, any leftover precip along the front will be getting push to the southeast as the front slowly passes through. Could still see some heavy rainers even after sunset with CAPE lingering, but again the shear will be fairly meager. Drier conditions will be settling in from northwest to southeast this evening and tonight. The cold front should be through just about all of our area by 06z, and entirely post-frontal by daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow`s forecast is a great one to see: drier weather, much less humidity, and cooler temperatures will be in store for us. Northerly flow behind the front will push out the humid airmass we`ve been stuck with the last several days, and temperatures will reach the low 80s, several degrees below normal for mid-July. After having dewpoints in the 70s, tomorrow`s dewpoints will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Clouds will be departing with the cold front, so we should have more sunshine by the late morning or early afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The cooler/drier post-frontal airmass will continue into Friday with highs in the lower 80s and lower humidity expected. By the weekend, the upper level pattern will shift to a baggy trough over the Plains which will remain in that area through mid week next week. This will leave southern IN and KY under an active southwesterly flow. A sfc boundary from the Gulf state will gradually lift north toward the lower Ohio Valley this weekend bringing showers/storms to southern/eastern portions of KY. By Mon/Tue time frame the sfc front will lift north through our region bringing better chances for showers/storms over all of southern IN/central KY each day especially afternoon/evening hrs. Temperatures will warm back into the mid to upper 80s for highs Sat/Sun when there`s less convection around. Then temps drop back slightly into the middle 80s for highs during the first half of the work week. Low temperatures will remain in the 60s for the weekend and through mid next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 BKN clouds ahead of a cold front are resulting in MVFR ceilings this afternoon. Some isolated to scattered showers will be possible through this afternoon, and may increase in coverage this evening as the cold front slowly sags south of the Ohio River. Do expect VFR conditions behind the front, along with a sharp wind shift from the north. There are some hints in the guidance of possibly seeing ceilings lower to MVFR again for a brief period as the front approaches BWG tomorrow morning. VFR will return to all sites for tomorrow. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...CJP