089
FXUS65 KLKN 080911
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
211 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record, to record breaking heat on tap, with Triple digit
highs for many, as a strong upper level ridge axis drifts over
Nevada this week. This Ridge will continue assert its dominance
over the region through the end of next week as it slowly drifts
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

Strong upper level ridge will begin its slow transit of the
Silver State through Wednesday morning as the ridge axis currently
over central Valley in California crosses the Sierra Nevada by
Monday evening, reaching the Utah/Nevada border Tuesday evening.
As the axis passes through the upper level flow will shift from
the NW to the W and eventually out of the SW. This will also allow
the upper and mid level winds to weaken, which will help relax
the surface winds as well. However it will also allow the heat to
intensify across the region with temperatures approaching the
upper 100s for some locations which even as we are in the
climatologically warmest part of the year, means near record, to
record breaking heat. For this reason the excessive heat warnings
for Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, and northern Nye counties continues
through Friday. An excessive heat watch remains in effect for
Elko, and White Pine counties as the near record to record heat
starts Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be much
above normal, as highs ranging in the mid 90s to mid 100s Monday
reaching the upper 90s to upper 100s Tuesday. Overnight lows look
to range in the low 60s to mid 70s which wont help with the build
up of heat stresses. Winds will be light to breezy Monday
afternoon out of the WNW to W at 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to
30 MPH possible. Tuesday wind weaken a bit as the ridge axis
crosses the state, with W to WSW winds at 5 to 10 MPH with a gust
to 20 MPH possible. It is strongly advised to practice heat safety
this weekend through next week. Be sure to drink plenty of water,
if outdoors limit sun exposure, take frequent breaks inside an
air conditioned structure, dont leave kids or pets unattended in
vehicles for any length of time, be sure to check on neighbors,
family, friends, and pets especially if they dont have access to
air conditioning, and finally be alert to the signs of heat
related illness.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday

Hot dry conditions expected to continue through Friday as the
high pressure heat dome moves east over the southwestern U.S.,
keeping high temperatures well above normal into the upper 90s to
100s throughout the region with lows in the 60s to low 70s
(Wendover lows expected in the 80s). Lighter winds expected with
some afternoon westerly breezes of 10-15 mph each day.

Over the weekend, ensemble models are showing the high pressure
system moving over the four corners and bringing chances for
monsoonal patterns over the western U.S., however, low confidence
on how much moisture may make it to the silver state. Chances for
isolated thunderstorms remain low, below 20% across eastern
Nevada, leaving western Nevada dry. A slight cooling trend towards
temperatures is expected, with highs back down into the 80s and
90s and lows reaching back down into the 50s.
Southerly/southwesterly winds expected to elevate in the afternoon
with speeds up to 10-20 mph, gusts 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals under sunny/clear skies. Lighter winds are expected
today as high pressure centers over NV. In general expect
northerly winds of 5 to 10kts in the afternoon and early evening
hours. Slightly higher winds at KELY and KTPH with gusts to 20kts
this afternoon. Smoke from a wildfire in northern Humboldt county
may result in periods of hazy skies at KWMC KBAM and KEKO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Upper level ridge of high pressure will bring near
record, to record breaking heat with many location seeing triple
digit highs. This pattern will keep temperatures well above normal
with highs reaching the upper 90s to upper 100s, and will combine
with low afternoon RH values of 10 to 15% to keep fire weather
concerns elevated for much of the region. Winds Monday will be out
of the W to WNW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible,
however by mid week winds lighten and become W to WSW at 5 to 10
MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH possible.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday Humboldt County...
Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County
and Southern Eureka County.

Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening
Northern Elko County...South Central Elko County...Southeastern
Elko County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County.

&&

$$

98/97/96/98