Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
916 FXUS65 KLKN 120959 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 259 AM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 AM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 * A warming trend is expected through next week. * Triple digit heat possible in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday. * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday. * Low chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) Issued at 108 AM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The dominant feature of weather pattern continues to be the building high pressure center and associated ridge over the SW CONUS this weekend. Persistence forecasting as the ridge amplifies over the west coast this weekend bumps temperatures up into the upper 90s and triple digits for valleys in northern and central NV by Sunday. As a result a Heat Advisory has been issued for a large portion of the area beginning Sunday at 11AM continued until 8PM PDT Monday night. A series of weak shortwaves riding the zonal flow to the north will skirt the northern NV border Monday and Tuesday next week. The bulk of energy associated with each system remains well north of the area enough vorticity, moisture, and instability will slip far enough south to initiate convective mainly north of I-80 on Monday. PW values evolve from more dry convection (0.55-0.6) early Monday afternoon to a mix of wet and dry along the border by Monday evening (PW > 0.65). Tuesday a similar setup occurs but with CAPE values of 150-200 J/kg extending a little further south into northern Lander and Eureka counties. Moisture availability Tuesday is a bit more ample with early evening PW`s of 0.75-0.85 over northeastern NV and combined with forcing from the system to the north could produce isolated convection through early evening. Cluster ensembles for Days 7 and 8 late next week signal the beginnings of a migration of the high pressure system to the east. If true, this will create a Four Corners setup allowing for potential monsoonal moisture riding the southerly flow of the western side of the high to filter up into the Silver State next weekend hopefully bringing with it much needed precipitation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Good confidence continues to exist in the building of hot temperatures across the CWA culminating in tripe digit heat Sunday through Wednesday of next week. Less confidence exists in the NBM`s inability to conjure convection during afternoon hours of Monday and Tuesday despite model agreement on the presence of instability and moisture associated with a passing shortwave. As a result isolated thunderstorms were added to afternoon and evening grids on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR flight conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday. Winds will be light to breezy out of the NE at 5KT to 10KT with a few gusts up to 20KT possible. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure continues to build up from the south, resulting in warmer temperatures and relatively light winds through the weekend. Weak instability across Central Nevada this afternoon will result in some afternoon cloud build-ups, however conditions remain dry with no storms. Sunday afternoon the weak instablity expands to include Northern Nevada fire weather zones, with partly to mostly cloudy skies late Sunday afternoon and early evening across the region. At this time not expecting any thunderstorms to develop through the weekend, with hot and dry conditions the main concern. Increasing instability on Monday with a 5 to 15 percent chance of dry thunderstorms mainly north of the I80 corridor in zones 437 438 469 and 470. Temperatures continue to trend warmer Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. Wind speeds are also expected to rise slightly both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range, possibly reaching 30 mph in northern 469 and 470. At this time the best chances for convection in the coming week look to be Tuesday afternoon and early evening, mainly centered over zones 438 469 and 470 where there is 10 to 20 percent chance of mainly dry thunderstorms. Remaining zones generally have a 5 to 10 percent chance of dry thunderstorms on Tuesday. Some relief from the heat is expected on Wednesday with most locations cooling by a couple to a few degrees, though highs remain in the 90s. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...96