558
FXUS65 KLKN 211039
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
339 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A large upper level ridge will continue dominating the
weather across northern and central Nevada for the next few days.
This means there will be a daily threat for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. In addition, very warm to hot
temperatures will remain over the area until roughly mid-week. Cooler
temperatures Thursday and Friday with diminishing thunderstorm
activity. Dry next weekend with near to slightly below normal
temperatures along with gusty southwesterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. Skies are mostly cloudy
across central Nevada and mostly clear over the north. Earlier
echoes on radar of virga or light showers have dissipated as the
early morning wears on. For today, all models continue to show a
strong upper level ridge with a center of circulation across
central and southern Nevada. Moisture under the ridge will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon
and evening. Storm motions are forecast to remain fairly slow at 5
knots or less with precipitable water values from six-tenths to
one inch. Storms are expected to be a mix of wet and dry to begin
the afternoon, with a transition to mostly wet storms later in the
afternoon. Winds will generally be light, but convective outflow
winds to 45 mph or more are possible. Highs today will remain
very warm to hot with readings in the 90s to mid 100s depending on
location. Current suite of heat products is trending well and no
updates are required. Look for isolated showers continuing
tonight in the north with lows in the 60s.

By Monday and Monday night, the position of the upper level ridge
does not change much, maintaining its position in southern Nevada.
Forecast precipitable water values are expected to be in the
three-quarters to one inch range, while storm motions will again
be slow at 5 knots or so. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the region during the afternoon
hours with convective wind gusts to 45 mph possible. Highs will be
in the 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s with
isolated showers.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

Upper level ridge will remain parked over the Great Basin for
most of the long term period, However by next weekend models show
an northern stream upper level trough moving in from the Pacific
into BC Canada, along with a weak upper low that is now west of
Cabo, this low will move around the upper ridge making landfall
over northern California Friday. These two features will merge
over the Pacific NW this weekend but not before weakening the
ridge allowing it to shift away from Nevada. Models disagree with
were the ridge will end up, as the GFS favors the four corners
while the ECMWF favors the ridge moving offshore near southern
California. Even as the large scale pattern looks to shift to more
of a slightly cooler (well, back to normal) one, mid level
monsoonal moisture will continue to flow into Nevada. The moisture
flow looks to peak Wednesday and Thursday, becoming restricted
and reduced for the weekend. This flow will generate daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons through Sunday.
Overall the best chances for storms will be over central Nevada,
for northern Nevada there will be a decent gradient from west to
east as the best chances will occur over eastern Elko county as
moisture content becomes mixed out farther west over Humboldt
county. POPs Tuesday are forecast in the 10% to 40% range,
building up to 40% to 70% Wednesday through Friday. However with
the ridge weakening, POPs fall back down to 10% to 20% Saturday
and Sunday and will be limited to regions near the UT/NV border up
to the NV/ID border. In tandem with the storm chances will be the
heat, Which will again be well above normal with many locations
seeing triple digits highs. Excessive heat warning is in effect
for Humboldt county and Heat advisories continue for SE Elko, SW
Elko, N Elko, N Eureka, and N Lander Counties through Wednesday
night. The good news is as storm chances peak Wednesday afternoon
through Friday, Temperatures will be cooling back to normal levels
starting Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the mid 90s to mid
100s through Wednesday, as clouds increase and the ridge weakens
Highs will drop into the low 90s to low 100s Thursday, and into
the upper 80s to upper 90s Saturday. Overnight lows will be a
concern for any potential for the need to expand/upgrade heat
headlines especially through Wednesday, as lows will range in the
low 60s to low 70s, with the notable exception of the
Wendover/Bonneville salt flats which will range in the mid to
upper 70s. Lows do look to cool a bit back into the low 50s to low
60s through the weekend. Winds, outside of storm influence, for
the extended will be generally out of the west to SW at 5 MPH to
15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 30 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR will be the primary flight condition thru today
and tonight at all terminals, though isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will again be present this afternoon across the
forecast area. All terminals have VCTS forecast for this
afternoon and main concerns will be gusty and erratic outflow
winds of 45+ knots, localized blowing dust, lightning, and heavy
rainfall associated with any thunderstorms that move on terminal.
Brief reduction to MVFR to even IFR levels may be possible.
Outside of storms, light to breezy winds with gusts around 20KTS
will be present during the day. Showers and thunderstorms weaken
and dissipate thru the evening with fair weather and light winds
again present overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure over southern Nevada is expected to
remain over the state through roughly mid-week. The pattern of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for
the next several days. In addition, temperatures will remain very
warm to hot with readings in the valleys in the 90s to low 100s in
spots. Winds will be light, though convective wind gusts to 45 mph
or more are possible in and around storms. Slow storm motions
under the ridge will help to contribute to the probability of
wetting rains across the area. Most thunderstorm activity across
central portions of the forecast area this afternoon is expected
to wet, with the potential for heavier storms to produce a tenth
to a quarter inch or more of rain. For the northern zones, this
afternoon will be drier, likely beginning as dry and transitioning
to wet by late evening. Another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will again develop Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday Humboldt County.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday Northern Elko County...
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Southeastern
Elko County...Southwest Elko County.

&&

$$

86/98/92/86