129
FXUS64 KLIX 161749
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

With storms starting to develop earlier each day, even if that is an
hour or two, it will have an impact on heat index readings. PW
values have been slowly rising over the last few days and we are
north of 2" and this in turn forces the trigger temps to lower to
around 89-90F. And since we reach these temps earlier in the day, we
should see another round of storms develop an hour or so earlier
today and possibly again Sat. Expectations are for storms to start
developing by 1-2pm and canopies from these storms should be enough
to retard the heating to keep us in advisory status for today. There
will be a few locations that don`t get this canopy and therefore
will heat up to higher numbers than the majority of locations. Sat
looks much the same at the moment as storms should get going around
the same time frame as today. Movement of storms should also be the
same as they develop and move with some form of southerly direction
with propagation along outflows mainly toward the west. Some of
these could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall causing very
localized issues, but no widespread issues are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Sunday will begin to see a back door cold front making its way
slowly toward the area. A strong MCS may be rotating around the SW
ridge which will then attach to this incoming front by Sunday. This
should cause outflows to the south by late Sun causing some storms
to move into the northern portion of the area around or after dark
Sun night. A few more disturbances may move along this frontal
interface as it pushes through the are slowly Monday and Tuesday.
The drier air will also slowly filter into the area but may not make
it to the coast west of the Miss River. So, each day will have an
opportunity of getting storms along where this boundary is located
for Tue and Wed. By the end of the week, all global models have an
easterly wave interacting with this stalled boundary enhancing the
sh/ts along both axes. Basically, we will slowly move into a wetter
pattern through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Convective development seems likely over the next few hours as
portions of the area reach the convective temperature this
afternoon. Overall coverage looks to be less than yesterday, so
some terminals might not see any rain or storms the entire period.
VFR conditions will remain prevalent outside of convection as high
pressure and weak flow stays over the area. Any storms that do
form will dissipate shortly after sunset and VFR conditions will
continue through the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Wind direction will be around the compass through the weekend and
rather light at 10kt or less. A cold front may move to near the
coastal waters late Mon into Tue bringing more storms with it and NE
winds rising to around 10kt temporarily in the shallow water bodies.
This front should settle and stall along the coast Tuesday keeping
winds light and variable for the most part through much of next
week. Higher winds and seas will be in and around storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  95  75  97 /  20  40  10  20
BTR  79  98  78 100 /  20  30   0  10
ASD  77  96  78  98 /  20  40  10  20
MSY  79  95  79  97 /  20  30   0  10
GPT  79  93  78  97 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  77  97  78  99 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TE