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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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129 FXUS64 KLIX 161749 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 With storms starting to develop earlier each day, even if that is an hour or two, it will have an impact on heat index readings. PW values have been slowly rising over the last few days and we are north of 2" and this in turn forces the trigger temps to lower to around 89-90F. And since we reach these temps earlier in the day, we should see another round of storms develop an hour or so earlier today and possibly again Sat. Expectations are for storms to start developing by 1-2pm and canopies from these storms should be enough to retard the heating to keep us in advisory status for today. There will be a few locations that don`t get this canopy and therefore will heat up to higher numbers than the majority of locations. Sat looks much the same at the moment as storms should get going around the same time frame as today. Movement of storms should also be the same as they develop and move with some form of southerly direction with propagation along outflows mainly toward the west. Some of these could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall causing very localized issues, but no widespread issues are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Sunday will begin to see a back door cold front making its way slowly toward the area. A strong MCS may be rotating around the SW ridge which will then attach to this incoming front by Sunday. This should cause outflows to the south by late Sun causing some storms to move into the northern portion of the area around or after dark Sun night. A few more disturbances may move along this frontal interface as it pushes through the are slowly Monday and Tuesday. The drier air will also slowly filter into the area but may not make it to the coast west of the Miss River. So, each day will have an opportunity of getting storms along where this boundary is located for Tue and Wed. By the end of the week, all global models have an easterly wave interacting with this stalled boundary enhancing the sh/ts along both axes. Basically, we will slowly move into a wetter pattern through next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Convective development seems likely over the next few hours as portions of the area reach the convective temperature this afternoon. Overall coverage looks to be less than yesterday, so some terminals might not see any rain or storms the entire period. VFR conditions will remain prevalent outside of convection as high pressure and weak flow stays over the area. Any storms that do form will dissipate shortly after sunset and VFR conditions will continue through the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Wind direction will be around the compass through the weekend and rather light at 10kt or less. A cold front may move to near the coastal waters late Mon into Tue bringing more storms with it and NE winds rising to around 10kt temporarily in the shallow water bodies. This front should settle and stall along the coast Tuesday keeping winds light and variable for the most part through much of next week. Higher winds and seas will be in and around storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 95 75 97 / 20 40 10 20 BTR 79 98 78 100 / 20 30 0 10 ASD 77 96 78 98 / 20 40 10 20 MSY 79 95 79 97 / 20 30 0 10 GPT 79 93 78 97 / 20 30 10 20 PQL 77 97 78 99 / 20 30 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...JZ MARINE...TE