985
FXUS64 KLIX 111137
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the southern tier of the US down
into the Gulf and over the northern tier a weak trough over the
upper midwest to the east coast and a weak ridge over the west and
plains.  The ridge will maintain drier air with PWs in the 1.6
range, which is slightly higher than normal for this time of year.
However, the subsidence under the high pressure will suppress most
chances for rain, with the exception being sea breeze generated lift
driving some low convection. High temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 90s, but the dry air will maintain Td around 70 today and
under 75 tomorrow, keeping the apparent temps just under the 108
limit for heat headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Monday into Tuesday the high pressure weakens slightly as the trough
digs south, but it also becomes centered right over us as the trough
pushes to the east.  This allows some moisture flow out of the Gulf
to push PWs back up into the more seasonable range around 2.0.
Convective Temps, CAPES in the 2500 range, and Downdraft CAPEs
around 1000 in the afternoons could drive some thunderstorms.  These
do provide some welcome relief from the heat, but may be later in
the afternoon after maximum Apparent Temps have been reached.  With
these overall conditions, we are looking at high likelihoods from
Tuesday through the end of the period of Apparent Temps in the 108-
112 range which will necessitate Heat Advisories across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

High pressure continues over the area with light winds and mostly
clear skies with no convection. This brings VFR conditions to all
terminals through the forecast period. /Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Light winds below 10 knots and seas below 2 feet are expected
through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure
remains in firm control of the area. The only concern will be the
threat of thunderstorms developing in the early morning hours
along a land-breeze boundary. These storms could produce some
locally higher winds and waves for brief periods of time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  70  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
BTR  98  76 100  78 /  10   0  10   0
ASD  97  75  98  77 /  10   0  10   0
MSY  96  79  96  79 /  10   0  20   0
GPT  96  77  96  78 /  10  10  10   0
PQL  99  74 100  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS