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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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923 FXUS64 KLIX 121426 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 926 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 902 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Performed a forecast update this morning to bring in latest short-range guidance following obs/trends. A couple of notable differences in the 12Z KLIX RAOB this morning compared to 24 hours ago, namely a noticeable increase in near-surface moisture that extends aloft to a shallow depth of around 1500ft AGL. Otherwise, the thermal profile remains similar from yesterday with some slight uptick in overall tropospheric moisture. Noticing a very slight lowering in H5 heights representative of a slow trend in weakness setting in/ridge strength weakening (retrograding west). Otherwise, likely will see another lake/seabreeze boundary developing extending from coastal SE LA to around the tidal lakes/sounds that`ll press inland given differential heating. The combination of this slight lack of tropospheric subsidence and increase in surface/near- surface moisture may aid in a few isolated showers, moreso collocated with the aforementioned lake/seabreeze boundary nearby maximized lift/support. However, inadequate tropospheric support will likely prevent sustained updrafts owing to pulse- type showers/storms with mainly isolated coverage. Targeted 15 PoP for along the boundary this afternoon following a ingest in HRRR/NBM blended surface winds to reflect the northward motion of the lake/seabreeze. Additionally, greater moisture pooling across the Atchafalaya basin may provide greatest coverage potential for western areas today - with PoP`s in the 15-30% range this afternoon. Otherwise, the heat is on again with highs reaching the mid/upper 90`s. Not to get too cute, but did dip highs down ever so slightly towards the 50th percentile as recent deterministic warmer bias may be a little too warm. Should this change, will adjust but with afternoon mixing, dewpoints should refrain from causing oppressive heat indicies. Probably getting close to/at criteria for the SW/W areas of the CWA, but coverage and confidence is not the greatest to introduce hazards at this time. KLG && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure moves east to be positioned more directly over the top of us. This adds a degree or two to our high temps and, more significantly, allows some Gulf moisture into the area. PW end up around 2.0 today and increase to 2.1ish tomorrow. Because the high is directly over us, winds are even lighter than the past couple days. Apparent Temperatures push up against the limit for a heat advisory, but aren`t quite there...yet. The high pressure will continue to force lower rain chances, but there are enough temperature differentials to develop some sea/lake breeze boundaries that may generate enough lift to kick off some convection. Nothing severe is expected, but there could be lightning and gusty winds associated with any pop-up storm that does happen to form. /Schlotz/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Wednesday through the end of the period sees continued high pressure dominance in our area, but a slight change to the synoptic pattern sees the possibility of a trough digging in just to our east. True impact of this pattern is not high, but is enough to increase rain chances slightly due to higher moisture availability as well as increased Apparent Temperature to trigger the need for Heat Advisory headlines. Any rain that occurs could be accompanied by lightning and gusty winds. /Schlotz/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Overall no real issues. All terminals currently in VFR and likely to remain that way for much if not all of the forecast. The only slight concern would be a rogue storm or two that develops in the afternoon along the lake breeze and/or sea breeze. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The dominant high pressure remains in place continuing the light winds and seas. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible daily primarily in the early morning, which could have lighting and gusty 30-40mph winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 95 73 96 75 / 10 10 20 10 BTR 99 79 99 79 / 20 10 30 10 ASD 98 78 98 77 / 20 10 20 10 MSY 96 80 97 80 / 20 10 30 10 GPT 96 79 96 78 / 10 10 20 10 PQL 100 77 101 77 / 10 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...KLG SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS