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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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317 FXUS64 KLIX 122017 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 317 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Upper ridge axis extended from New Mexico to northern Louisiana early this afternoon with northern stream shortwaves over New York and Illinois. At the surface, a frontal boundary was pretty close to Interstate 10. Isolated to scattered convection had developed this afternoon, with most of the storms nearly stationary. Early morning soundings showed precipitable water values around 1.75 inches, but short range forecast guidance indicated values closer to 1.9 inches are realistic this afternoon. Temperatures heated up pretty quickly during the morning, but as cumulus and storms developed around midday, that pretty much arrested any heating in most areas with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 90s. The exception was around Pascagoula/Trent Lott Airport (98F), where the sea breeze hadn`t reached. Expect most convection to dissipate close to 00z as we lose surface heating. On Tuesday, ridging tries to build over the area a bit, but forecast soundings also show moisture levels increasing a bit, closer to 2 inches. This is likely to be reflected in slightly higher surface dew points. That provides the potential for heat index values to run a bit higher than today, which would be just enough to justify Heat Advisories. The wild card, of course, will be how quickly, and where, convection develops tomorrow. Have gone ahead and issued an advisory for tomorrow, knowing a few locations may not quite reach those levels before convection arrives. Again tomorrow, convection should primarily die out before sunset. Wind fields remain rather weak, so anything that develops will probably rain itself out in place. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Overall, upper pattern doesn`t look to change much until Saturday or Sunday, when northern stream troughing brings a bit more northwesterly mid level flow to the area. The ECMWF is a bit quicker in doing this than the GFS, but at this time range, solutions could change or even flip between models, so will hold onto NBM PoPs for the weekend. For the remainder of this workweek, we will see the potential for isolated to scattered afternoon convection each day with little day to day change in temperatures. We`re likely to reach at least Heat Advisory criteria in most areas for each of the next several days and will continue to assess on a day to day basis. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Generally VFR conditions through the forecast period. Cannot entirely rule out convection this afternoon at KHUM, KNEW and KMSY, but areal coverage is expected to be too low to carry as prevailing, or close enough to justify VCTS. If it appears that terminal area could be impacted, will cover with an amendment. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure will remain the main controlling factor in the marine weather. The weak pressure pattern will produce relatively weak wind fields. However, thunderstorm development can be expected during the late night and morning hours, which will have the potential for lightning and wind gusts exceeding 30 knots. This could produce locally higher seas in the vicinity of storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 96 75 97 / 10 20 0 20 BTR 79 99 79 100 / 10 30 10 20 ASD 77 98 77 99 / 10 30 10 20 MSY 79 97 80 97 / 10 40 10 30 GPT 78 96 78 97 / 10 30 10 20 PQL 77 100 77 101 / 10 30 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW