121
FXUS64 KLIX 051147
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
647 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

We had a few isolated storms on this 4th of July but the bigger
impact was the rather decent shield of clouds over the
southwestern half of the CWA. It helped keep temps down a few
degrees in those areas and made for a slightly more pleasurable
day. The rest of the night will be fairly quiet and tomorrow looks
like it will be a warm one.

For our weekend it looks like it will be a tale of two stories.
Today dominated by drier air throughout the column and just enough
ridging aloft. The ridge will still be centered well off to the
north and a TUTT low over the northeastern Gulf. This will likely
keep the region on the drier side today especially given the rather
low PWs for this time of the year, expected to be around 1.25-1.7
most of the day. H925 temps around 25 to 27C suggest highs in the
mid 90s over most of the area maybe even one or two sites topping
out in the upper 90s. The one hiccup to that would be convection.
Even though we will start out quite dry deeper moisture to our east
associated with the TUTT will slowly work towards our area and if it
moves in just early enough could lead to a few storms across coastal
MS and right across the Pearl River in SELA. Heat Index readings
will range once again from the upper 90s to mid 100s but again most
if not all of the area will remain just below adv criteria.

As for Sunday, showers and thunderstorms look to make a return. This
will be to the ridge breaking down and the TUTT low beginning to
move west across the Gulf. The mid lvl temps associated with this
feature could be as cold as -9C (GFS even shows -10 in the central
Gulf). There will be an increase in moisture as the TUTT moves west
and that combined with cooler temps aloft should easily lead to
scattered if not numerous storms Sunday. This low will lead to
enhanced convective chances to start the work week as well. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The extended forecast looks like it will continue to be active with
respect to showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon storms are not
unusual for the Summer down here but what looks like numerous storms
most if not everyday is a little more then typical. And as mentioned
last night it looks like we get into a similar pattern that we were
in a few weeks ago. The medium range models have some slight
differences but overall generally agree with the pattern we will see
next week NBM has very high PoPs especially for the back half of the
work week yet see no reason to deviate from that for now.

As was said in the short term the TUTT which will begin to weaken
some will still have a rather strong influence on the area Monday.
This should continue to lead to favorable conditions for showers and
thunderstorms. As we move deeper in the work week the pattern starts
to take shape with us once again falling in-between two ridges, a
much larger one to the west and the ridge over the western Atlantic.
This weakness helped by the low that had been moving over the Gulf
will continue to lead typical daily showers and thunderstorms over
land areas with convection more marine focused overnight. Even as
the ridge over the western Atlantic starts to shift west it gets
suppressed due to multiple s/w`s rounding the ridge to our west and
working down the east side of it over the Mid and into the Lower MS
Valley. This pattern stays in place through the rest of the week and
with a trough axis draped over or just west of the area combined
with rich tropical moisture over the area, conditions will continue
to be favorable for numerous storms each day. As mentioned by the
previous forecaster some storms will be quite efficient and will
likely drop a very quick 1-2 inches of rain or more in under an
hour. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

There have been some minor visibility restrictions this morning in
light fog. These should improve quickly in the next hour or two. A
few narrow bands of clouds around 850 mb could produce some brief
ceilings this morning, but probably at or above FL040. Any TSRA
today would be extremely isolated, and threat isn`t high enough at
an individual terminal to justify TEMPO or PROB30. While the
threat for TSRA on Sunday will be higher, that will be during the
afternoon hours, so no need for a mention at KMSY in this package.
Probably will need to be addressed in the 18z package though.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Outside of convection the marine conditions are quite benign. Around
any storms locally higher winds and seas can be expected.

Very broad weak high pressure remains over the Gulf which will
continue to lead to generally light winds over the coastal waters
through the weekend and into next week. Winds will be a little more
chaotic and driven by diurnal fluctuations given the very weak
synoptic setup at the sfc.  By mid week high pressure becomes a
little more broad over the Gulf with light winds still but with
atleast a little direction out of the southwest and west. Showers
and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the coastal waters
overnight starting Sunday night and likely occur each night through
the week. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  72  93  71 /  20  10  50  10
BTR  95  75  95  74 /  20  10  60  20
ASD  94  73  93  72 /  30  10  50  20
MSY  94  79  94  77 /  30  20  60  20
GPT  93  73  92  74 /  30  10  40  20
PQL  94  71  93  72 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB