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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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354 FXUS64 KLIX 131455 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 955 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Performed a forecast update this morning to bring in the latest near-term guidance thru this evening and match to obs/trends. Really very little change in the state of the troposphere compared to the previous 24 hours. Very similar "warm" thermal profile aloft, similar low-level and total PW values (maybe slightly greater moisture aloft). As we warm up and mix out today, we still won`t see much in the way of available energy with a rather "skinny" SBCAPE profile thanks to the aforementioned warmer thermal profile aloft. Given the little change from yesterday, same can be said about today. Subtle weakness (albeit still considered ridge dominant) synoptic pattern will aid in suppression, but could still see scattered showers/few storms bubble up, especially collocated with deeper surface moisture across SE LA and the Atchafalaya Basin - where PoPs were bumped up a tad more today. Otherwise, additional forcing mechanisms like seabreeze/lakebreeze boundaries and residual outflow boundaries from earlier storm development will be the foci for development and propagation today. No one main threat with any stronger storm stands out, but some could be gusty with dangerous lightning the main risks and if updrafts root to any boundary interactions/collisions, could briefly see a tropical funnel or waterspout especially across the same areas of far SE LA and the Atchafalaya Basin. Did increase PoPs also to mention an isolated shower or storm east across the Northshore to coastal MS, targeting where the seabreeze/lakebreeze may pop development this afternoon. All activity will come to an end around sunset with a calm/clear night. Additionally, looks like the 50th percentile verified the best for yesterdays high which means yes, the deterministic is coming in slightly too warm likely from the recent week(s) high bias of extreme heat we`ve been dealing with. Performed the same slight bump down with highs that places many areas still in the upper 90`s. No changes to the Heat Advisory in effect, but be on the lookout for another Advisory likely for tomorrow for the afternoon package. KLG && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Sfc moisture is making its way back into the area slowly as dew pts creep up toward 80F. And as you have heard, this will couple with the strong heating each day to bring about heat advisories. Not much change in these conditions for the next few days. The cause of this remains the large stacked high centered over northern TX today which will migrate a bit more east toward northern LA, at least this is the H3 level position. Some sh/ts will be able to get started in the heat of each day but will be isolated to scattered at best. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The H3 high will eventually center itself over the SE CONUS by Thu as it moistens and weakens during this time frame. A new SW CONUS stacked high will then take up residence where the current high vacated. This new stacked high is currently located near 30N 127W which is over the EASTPAC. As this new high quickly moves east into the continental US, it will help intensify our NW flow bringing some storms from the north as an upper level trough axis remains over the east. With this and a weak short wave moving through by the end of the week, we may see a quick rise in precip numbers for the weekend. These would be traveling from the north and several could be strong or even severe. Timing looks like late Sat or overnight Sat. Some will definitely welcome the rain but no large scale changes at the moment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 All terminals VFR this taf cycle. There is a low chance of TSRA mainly near coastal locations during the afternoon hours and these will be timed in taf set. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Wind direction will be around the compass through the week but will be rather light at 10kt or less. Higher winds and seas will be in and around storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 97 75 98 75 / 10 10 20 10 BTR 98 79 100 79 / 30 20 20 10 ASD 98 77 99 78 / 30 10 20 10 MSY 96 79 98 80 / 40 10 30 10 GPT 96 78 98 79 / 40 10 20 10 PQL 99 77 102 77 / 30 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE