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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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021 FXUS64 KLIX 132250 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 550 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Afternoon convection dissipating rapidly, and likely to be little or no precipitation beyond about 7 PM CDT. There will be at least one update this evening to remove headlines regarding today`s heat advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Upper ridging centered near the Texas-Oklahoma border, extending northward through the Plains States, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest and Appalachians. That is producing a bit of northerly flow over the Mississippi coastal counties that is allowing convection in that area to move southward, whereas, over most of the area, convection is nearly stationary. Areal coverage remains on the isolated side, providing only very limited relief from the heat. In most areas, heat index values are reaching advisory criteria, at least briefly. Temperatures at 3 PM were mostly in the mid and upper 90s with dew points in the 70s. While precipitable water values were generally near 2 inches this morning, the center of the ridging is expected to shift a bit eastward to near Shreveport tomorrow. That is expected to drop precipitable water values to around 1.7 inches. That would lead one to believe that areal coverage of storms should be less than today, with only isolated storms expected. That should also lead to high temperatures creeping up a bit from today. That should solidly place much of the area in the upper 90s. The main question will be dew points, which may be a bit too high in current guidance. For now, will carry a Heat Advisory for tomorrow, but it`s not out of the question that an Excessive Heat Warning may be necessary for a portion of the area. If that happens, it would probably be for portions of the area surrounding Lake Pontchartrain, the Atchafalaya Basin and perhaps the Mississippi coastal counties. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Moisture levels rebound on Thursday, with convective coverage rebounding accordingly, although it may take a good bit of the afternoon to develop. Heat index values will continue to support heat related products on Thursday and probably Friday. As axis of ridging retreats to the Rockies for Friday into the weekend, a weak frontal boundary may approach the area. Keeping in mind it is mid-August, an actual frontal passage would qualify as a low probability event. No indications of any lowered dew points in the GFS guidance to provide any sustained relief from the heat, but the ECMWF deterministic solution would argue for drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Didn`t depart from the NBM solutions for now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Convection is dissipating rapidly, and no plans to carry a mention of TSRA this evening. VFR conditions are anticipated across all terminals during the overnight hours. The only mention of VCTS during the daytime hours tomorrow will be at KGPT, where moisture levels may be high enough to justify thunderstorm development once the convective temperature is reached around midday. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 No surprises in the marine forecast with the potential for thunderstorms during the late night and morning hours for the most part. Outside of thunderstorms expect winds to generally remain 10 knots or less with 1-2 foot seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 97 75 97 / 10 20 10 40 BTR 79 99 80 99 / 10 20 10 30 ASD 77 98 78 98 / 10 20 10 40 MSY 79 97 80 97 / 10 20 10 40 GPT 78 97 79 97 / 10 20 10 40 PQL 77 101 77 100 / 10 20 10 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW