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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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237 FXUS64 KLIX 142332 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Northerly mid-level flow and dry air around 500mb have kept convection at bay for most of the day today. In fact, efficient dry air mixing has been taking place today throughout much of the afternoon, leading to the soaring temperatures near triple digits. So, although the actual temps continue to climb this afternoon, the dry air mixing has kept the dew points on RH lower. It`s definitely still hot, but this keeps us under the excessive heat warning threshold. We are just now seeing convective development across the area as we reach the convective temperature. The aforementioned mid-level dry air has lead to some high DCAPE across the area in the 1000-1400 j/kg range. Therefore, any strong storm will be capable of producing strong to severe downdraft winds. Low-end hail cannot be ruled out, but the the freezing level being around 16 kft, hail seems unlikely. In fact, the high freezing level would promote hail melting with the stronger cores, and the melting hail will just create more downward momentum for downdrafts, further supporting the isolated damaging wind risk. Any convection that does form should dissipate shortly after sunset around 9 or 10pm. The mid-level ridge is expected to continue to slide westward across the ArkLaTex tomorrow, putting us into a more northeast flow regime. With it, much of the dry air aloft is expected to move westward as well. This opens up the door for more convective development with less suppression from the departing ridge and higher moisture. For context, PW will go from 1.9 inch today to over 2.2 inches tomorrow. Thus, PoPs were bumped up from NBM to account for this. High-res models depict convective development across SE Mississippi tomorrow before propagating southwestward with the mean mid-level flow. Isolated damaging winds is the main threat again as DCAPE seems to remain elevated from 800-900 j/kg due to dry air below 850mb. Development seems likely around noon or 1pm tomorrow as that area reaches the convective temperature, and the cluster of storms should exit the area or dissipate shortly after sunset around 9 or 10pm. Outside of convection, there is expected to be a brief window where the temperatures get hot enough for a heat advisory before convection cools off the area during the afternoon and evening. However, a small change in timing and coverage could prevent it from getting that hot. Above average moisture looks to hang around on Friday, so convective coverage is expected to be similar to Thursday. Much of that development looks to be dictated by seabreeze and lakebreeze boundaries. DCAPE seems to be a little lower (~700 j/kg) on Friday as the lower-level moisten up, but isolated strong to severe wind gusts cannot be ruled outwith any strong storm. Similar to tomorrow, how hot we get depends a lot on convective timing and coverage. This will need to be monitored for an additional heat advisory for Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Saturday has some questions about the forecast right now. The 00Z globals, mainly the Euro, was showing an MCS make it`s way down into the region but the 12z has backed off on this idea some. This comes as a frontal boundary will approach the area and eventually stall out somewhere. Where exactly is the question. Regardless, this boundary and associated outflows with the already increased moisture will cause PoPs to be higher. Heading into the late weekend and early next week, we are looking to be back on the drier side again. While the dewpoints drop back down some, the temperatures aren`t really affected and may even go back up a tick. Knowing this, we will likely still be very close to or at Heat Advisory criteria again after likely having a small break over the weekend due to the increased rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Robust convection continuing at forecast issuance time, and will need to carry TEMPO TSRA for the first couple hours of the forecast at KGPT/KASD/KMCB/KBTR. Have seen quite a few wind gusts to 35KT with convection, along with IFR visibilities. Expect convection to wind down prior to 03z, with VFR the remainder of the night. Expect convection to refire during the afternoon on Thursday, with areal coverage at least as good as today. Most convection allowing models don`t develop much prior to 18z tomorrow. Based on the timing of convection the last few days, will carry TEMPO TSRA at multiple terminals during the late afternoon tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 With high pressure meandering around at the surface, we`ll see variable winds over the next couple days but they will remain light. WIth light winds, we also see pretty low seas but thunderstorms over the waters may cause higher winds and seas at times. Thunderstorm coverage will increase tomorrow and over the next couple days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 76 96 75 95 / 20 70 20 60 BTR 80 99 79 98 / 10 60 30 60 ASD 78 98 76 96 / 20 70 30 70 MSY 80 98 80 95 / 20 70 30 70 GPT 78 96 78 93 / 30 70 30 70 PQL 77 100 78 96 / 30 70 30 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...RW MARINE...HL