116
FXUS64 KLIX 150826
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
326 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Today and Friday will look fairly similar to the last few days. A
few more storms around each day taking full advantage of the strong
heating during the day causing a few of these to become strong to
severe. Today the same thing and we should see these start to
develop over and near the Pearl River area and down into New
Orleans. These storms are propagating on outflow boundaries produced
by these storms as well and development vectors are westward more
than eastward, so we should see the initialization over the eastern
portion of the area which will then spread westward through the late
afternoon hours. This does not help the heat issue though as these
storms should develop later in the day to overcome the high trigger
temps. This means we should observe very similar heat index readings
again today and possibly Friday. Since we have index temps above
113F in many locations, we will be shifting from and advisory to a
warning with this package.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A very weak trough axis will stall near the area by Saturday and
this should help get a few more storms started by late Sat. But
still not a lot of difference in conditions. Sun into Mon is a bit
of a change though and it looks legit as a back door front should
move into if not through the area by Monday. The cause of this
occurance will be Ernesto. Confidence is high on this frontal
solution the models are showing because of the path of Ernesto, with
some nuances. But a bit of physics made simple, when a large amount
of mass moves from one place to another, something has to also move
in to take its place. The planet is a huge heat engine in this way
that heat always moves to colder areas which is polward and so this
movement of heat and mass northward causes the cooler air to the
north to move in and take its place. We get lucky that we get the
better part of this exchange. But locally, this back door front will
help produce many more storms with it, maybe as early as late Sunday
or into Monday. As the front moves through, it will drop dew pt
temps into more comfortable levels as well. But the high temps will
still be in the mid 90s for most areas if not a bit higher. This
somewhat dry air will stay a few days but will be gone by Wed night
into Thu of next week and we get back into the heat again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

All terminals VFR until mid to late afternoon. Another round of
strong and maybe a few severe TSRA will be developing in the mid to
late afternoon hours and this will be timed in this taf set.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

As sfc highs move in and out of the area, wind direction will be
around the compass through the weekend  but will be rather light at
10kt or less. A cold front may move through the coastal waters late
Mon into Tue bringing more storms with it and NE winds rising to
around 15kt. This will be temporary as the front should settle and
stall along the coast keeping winds light and variable for the most
part through much of next week. Higher winds and seas will be in and
around storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  93  74 /  50  20  60  10
BTR 100  79  96  79 /  50  30  60  10
ASD  97  77  94  76 /  50  30  70  10
MSY  96  79  93  79 /  50  30  70  10
GPT  95  78  92  78 /  50  20  60  10
PQL  99  77  95  76 /  50  20  60  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE