522
FXUS64 KLIX 030426
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A drier airmass indicated by PW of 1.7 tol 1.9 inches will be the
direct result of an upper level ridge becoming more centered over
the central Gulf coast. As sinking air aloft warms and dries, it
will allow for the development of a mid-level temperature
inversion around the 700mb or 10k feet level. This capping
inversion will effectively limit updraft development, and this
will lead to less overall shower and thunderstorm activity across
most of the forecast area each day. At most, an isolated shower or
weak thunderstorm could try to fire up along the seabreeze
boundary where low level convergence is maximized. With this in
mind, there are 20 to 30 percent PoP values in place for coastal
Louisiana both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Less cloud cover and
the drier air mixing down to the surface each day will allow
temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. However, the drier air and
lower humidity values will keep extreme heat at bay with heat
index values of 100 to 105 expected on Thursday and Friday. These
values are not uncommon for early July. [PG/DSS]

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Saturday will continue to see the influence of the weak ridging
aloft with continued below average PWATS, slightly warmer
temperatures, and isolated to widely scattered convective activity
confined to the coast where seabreeze boundary interactions will
provide just enough low level forcing to produce some deeper
updrafts. Overall, very similar conditions to those seen on Friday
are expected for Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday will see a more typical Summer pattern
take hold. The upper level ridge will weaken and push away from
the region, and an inverted trough moving with the prevailing
easterly flow in the upper levels will slide in from the eastern
Gulf. As this inverted trough axis moves in, PWATS will rise back
to more average levels near 1.75 inches for the start of the new
workweek. The trough will also provide some additional forcing in
the upper levels and cooler temperatures associated with the low
will allow the mid-level capping inversion to weaken dramatically.
The end result will be an increase in instability with MLCAPE
values climbing back to around 1500 J/KG and greater convective
coverage each day. PoP values of 50 to 70 percent each afternoon
reflect this increased risk for early next week. Temperatures will
also cool slightly into the lower 90s, but the increase in low
level humidity will keep heat index values around 105 degrees each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Afternoon convection has ended leaving VFR conditions across the
area. This situation will prevail through the period, with the
exceptions of HUM/MSY/BTR where convection will bring chances of
SHRA beginning around 17Z and accounted for with PROB30 coding.
/Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Typical summertime conditions associated with high pressure over
the area. Winds will be from the north around 10 kt with 1 to 2 ft
seas through Saturday and switching to southerly, less than 10 kt,
with resultant 1 ft seas. Convection through the early weekend is
less likely, but increases later into the weekend and into the new
week. Winds in the vicinity of the convection will be stronger and
variable and can cause localized heavier seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  30  10
BTR  94  77  94  75 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  93  73  94  73 /  40  10  30  10
MSY  92  80  94  80 /  40  10  40  10
GPT  91  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  10
PQL  91  71  94  71 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS