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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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581 FXUS64 KLIX 151759 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Today and Friday will look fairly similar to the last few days. A few more storms around each day taking full advantage of the strong heating during the day causing a few of these to become strong to severe. Today the same thing and we should see these start to develop over and near the Pearl River area and down into New Orleans. These storms are propagating on outflow boundaries produced by these storms as well and development vectors are westward more than eastward, so we should see the initialization over the eastern portion of the area which will then spread westward through the late afternoon hours. This does not help the heat issue though as these storms should develop later in the day to overcome the high trigger temps. This means we should observe very similar heat index readings again today and possibly Friday. Since we have index temps above 113F in many locations, we will be shifting from and advisory to a warning with this package. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A very weak trough axis will stall near the area by Saturday and this should help get a few more storms started by late Sat. But still not a lot of difference in conditions. Sun into Mon is a bit of a change though and it looks legit as a back door front should move into if not through the area by Monday. The cause of this occurrence will be Ernesto. Confidence is high on this frontal solution the models are showing because of the path of Ernesto, with some nuances. But a bit of physics made simple, when a large amount of mass moves from one place to another, something has to also move in to take its place. The planet is a huge heat engine in this way that heat always moves to colder areas which is poleward and so this movement of heat and mass northward causes the cooler air to the north to move in and take its place. We get lucky that we get the better part of this exchange. But locally, this back door front will help produce many more storms with it, maybe as early as late Sunday or into Monday. As the front moves through, it will drop dew pt temps into more comfortable levels as well. But the high temps will still be in the mid 90s for most areas if not a bit higher. This somewhat dry air will stay a few days but will be gone by Wed night into Thu of next week and we get back into the heat again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Convective development is expected to begin in the next few hours across the area. Exactly where storms will form is tough to nail down in this summertime pattern, so mainly VCTS has been carried with most terminals for this afternoon and into the evening. There seems to be higher confidence in storms impacting HDC around 22-00z this evening where a weak boundary is laid up, so a TEMPO group has been put in there. However, with the very weak steering, hat other storms forms and where they go is still a question. As they form, we`ll get a better idea of what will happen. Any convection that does form is expected to dissipate shortly after sunset. Outside of convection, all terminals will be VFR for the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 As sfc highs move in and out of the area, wind direction will be around the compass through the weekend but will be rather light at 10kt or less. A cold front may move through the coastal waters late Mon into Tue bringing more storms with it and NE winds rising to around 15kt. This will be temporary as the front should settle and stall along the coast keeping winds light and variable for the most part through much of next week. Higher winds and seas will be in and around storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 93 74 95 / 20 60 10 40 BTR 79 96 79 98 / 30 60 10 40 ASD 77 94 76 96 / 30 70 10 40 MSY 79 93 79 95 / 30 70 10 40 GPT 78 92 78 93 / 20 60 10 30 PQL 77 95 76 97 / 20 60 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...JZ MARINE...TE