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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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659 FXUS64 KLIX 152022 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 322 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Convective development has been noted across southern Mississippi over the past hour. Higher mid-level moisture and a weak boundary has aided in that development this afternoon. A pocket of higher DCAPE has been noted across the Florida Parishes with values of 900-1000 j/kg where the low-levels have been able to mix out. With the cluster of thunderstorms coming from Southern Mississippi heading that way, that area could see a higher threat of strong to severe winds. Also, SBCAPE and MLCAPE values are around 5000 j/kg and 3500 j/kg, respectively, so that cluster and its associated outflow boundary should continue to push through the area moving to the southwest. That main cluster should push through the area throughout the afternoon and evening until the sun goes down or it moves out of the area. Tomorrow will be very similar to today in terms of temperatures and convective coverage. PW will still remain elevated around 2-2.2 inches across the area tomorrow as the pocket of mid-level moisture hangs around. This, with the help of the weak boundary across the area, will aid in storm development tomorrow. Much of the convection will again be dictated by outflow boundaries as well as sea and lake-breeze boundaries. Surface mixing will help DCAPE get up to around 900-1000 j/kg tomorrow, similar to day. Thus strong to severe damaging winds seems possible again tomorrow with the strongest storms. Convective development seems a little later tomorrow with the northerly flow aloft, so temps were bumped up slightly, bringing us to heat advisory conditions. Of course, if development happens earlier, then the heat will not be as bad tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The mid-level ridge will continue to slide westward this weekend, putting us more firmly into northerly flow aloft. This will help us stay somewhat dry this weekend. The surface high over the eastern CONUS is also expected to slide westward and place itself over us this weekend. That will also help to keep us dry, but it will also cause us to heat up. So, heat headlines will likely be needed into the weekend. Medium-range guidance suggests that troughing over the eastern CONUS will throw down another front sometime either late Sunday or Monday. This time of year, it is hard for a front to make it all the way down here, but with northerly flow, it is possible. If that were to happen, we will "cool" down slightly while upping rain chances. That is something to just monitor at this point. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Convective development is expected to begin in the next few hours across the area. Exactly where storms will form is tough to nail down in this summertime pattern, so mainly VCTS has been carried with most terminals for this afternoon and into the evening. There seems to be higher confidence in storms impacting HDC around 22-00z this evening where a weak boundary is laid up, so a TEMPO group has been put in there. However, with the very weak steering, hat other storms forms and where they go is still a question. As they form, we`ll get a better idea of what will happen. Any convection that does form is expected to dissipate shortly after sunset. Outside of convection, all terminals will be VFR for the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Mostly benign marine conditions will persist through the forecast period. Thunderstorm development will be most likely each morning during the period. A surface high looks to move over the waters this weekend as parent ridge slides westward across the SW CONUS. A front is possible to move through the area early next week, so that will be a focus of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 95 75 95 / 20 50 20 40 BTR 80 98 78 98 / 30 60 30 30 ASD 77 96 76 95 / 20 50 20 30 MSY 80 95 79 95 / 40 60 30 30 GPT 79 93 78 93 / 20 50 20 30 PQL 78 96 76 96 / 20 40 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....JZ AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JZ