659
FXUS64 KLIX 152022
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
322 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Convective development has been noted across southern Mississippi
over the past hour. Higher mid-level moisture and a weak boundary
has aided in that development this afternoon. A pocket of higher
DCAPE has been noted across the Florida Parishes with values of
900-1000 j/kg where the low-levels have been able to mix out. With the cluster of
thunderstorms coming from Southern Mississippi heading that way,
that area could see a higher threat of strong to severe winds.
Also, SBCAPE and MLCAPE values are around 5000 j/kg and 3500
j/kg, respectively, so that cluster and its associated outflow
boundary should continue to push through the area moving to the
southwest. That main cluster should push through the area
throughout the afternoon and evening until the sun goes down or it
moves out of the area.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today in terms of temperatures
and convective coverage. PW will still remain elevated around
2-2.2 inches across the area tomorrow as the pocket of mid-level
moisture hangs around. This, with the help of the weak boundary
across the area, will aid in storm development tomorrow. Much of
the convection will again be dictated by outflow boundaries as
well as sea and lake-breeze boundaries. Surface mixing will help
DCAPE get up to around 900-1000 j/kg tomorrow, similar to day.
Thus strong to severe damaging winds seems possible again tomorrow
with the strongest storms. Convective development seems a little
later tomorrow with the northerly flow aloft, so temps were bumped
up slightly, bringing us to heat advisory conditions. Of course,
if development happens earlier, then the heat will not be as bad
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The mid-level ridge will continue to slide westward this weekend,
putting us more firmly into northerly flow aloft. This will help
us stay somewhat dry this weekend. The surface high over the
eastern CONUS is also expected to slide westward and place itself
over us this weekend. That will also help to keep us dry, but it
will also cause us to heat up. So, heat headlines will likely be
needed into the weekend.

Medium-range guidance suggests that troughing over the eastern
CONUS will throw down another front sometime either late Sunday or
Monday. This time of year, it is hard for a front to make it all
the way down here, but with northerly flow, it is possible. If
that were to happen, we will "cool" down slightly while upping
rain chances. That is something to just monitor at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Convective development is expected to begin in the next few hours
across the area. Exactly where storms will form is tough to nail
down in this summertime pattern, so mainly VCTS has been carried
with most terminals for this afternoon and into the evening. There
seems to be higher confidence in storms impacting HDC around
22-00z this evening where a weak boundary is laid up, so a TEMPO
group has been put in there. However, with the very weak steering,
hat other storms forms and where they go is still a question. As
they form, we`ll get a better idea of what will happen. Any
convection that does form is expected to dissipate shortly after
sunset. Outside of convection, all terminals will be VFR for the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Mostly benign marine conditions will persist through the forecast
period. Thunderstorm development will be most likely each morning
during the period. A surface high looks to move over the waters
this weekend as parent ridge slides westward across the SW CONUS.
A front is possible to move through the area early next week, so
that will be a focus of rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  75  95 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  80  98  78  98 /  30  60  30  30
ASD  77  96  76  95 /  20  50  20  30
MSY  80  95  79  95 /  40  60  30  30
GPT  79  93  78  93 /  20  50  20  30
PQL  78  96  76  96 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ