![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
936 FXUS64 KLIX 152357 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 657 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Cold pool driven convection continues to dive southward across southeast Louisiana. Main effects have been wind gusts to about 40 mph, and very heavy rain. Several areas have received upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour. Convection has weakened somewhat with the loss of daytime heating, but it will likely still take another couple hours for storms to shift westward into southwest Louisiana and/or southward into the coastal waters. Will be updating shortly to remove the heat related headline from today and to hopefully depict near-term weather trends. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Convective development has been noted across southern Mississippi over the past hour. Higher mid-level moisture and a weak boundary has aided in that development this afternoon. A pocket of higher DCAPE has been noted across the Florida Parishes with values of 900-1000 j/kg where the low-levels have been able to mix out. With the cluster of thunderstorms coming from Southern Mississippi heading that way, that area could see a higher threat of strong to severe winds. Also, SBCAPE and MLCAPE values are around 5000 j/kg and 3500 j/kg, respectively, so that cluster and its associated outflow boundary should continue to push through the area moving to the southwest. That main cluster should push through the area throughout the afternoon and evening until the sun goes down or it moves out of the area. Tomorrow will be very similar to today in terms of temperatures and convective coverage. PW will still remain elevated around 2-2.2 inches across the area tomorrow as the pocket of mid-level moisture hangs around. This, with the help of the weak boundary across the area, will aid in storm development tomorrow. Much of the convection will again be dictated by outflow boundaries as well as sea and lake-breeze boundaries. Surface mixing will help DCAPE get up to around 900-1000 j/kg tomorrow, similar to day. Thus strong to severe damaging winds seems possible again tomorrow with the strongest storms. Convective development seems a little later tomorrow with the northerly flow aloft, so temps were bumped up slightly, bringing us to heat advisory conditions. Of course, if development happens earlier, then the heat will not be as bad tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The mid-level ridge will continue to slide westward this weekend, putting us more firmly into northerly flow aloft. This will help us stay somewhat dry this weekend. The surface high over the eastern CONUS is also expected to slide westward and place itself over us this weekend. That will also help to keep us dry, but it will also cause us to heat up. So, heat headlines will likely be needed into the weekend. Medium-range guidance suggests that troughing over the eastern CONUS will throw down another front sometime either late Sunday or Monday. This time of year, it is hard for a front to make it all the way down here, but with northerly flow, it is possible. If that were to happen, we will "cool" down slightly while upping rain chances. That is something to just monitor at this point. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Near term concern is convection, primarily at KNEW/KMSY/KHUM. Any strong wind impacts likely to diminish by 01z. Beyond that point, should be primarily VFR conditions with a cirrus overcast everywhere with possible exception of KGPT. Will not carry TSRA for Friday afternoon at this time, and reassess for 06z package. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Mostly benign marine conditions will persist through the forecast period. Thunderstorm development will be most likely each morning during the period. A surface high looks to move over the waters this weekend as parent ridge slides westward across the SW CONUS. A front is possible to move through the area early next week, so that will be a focus of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 74 95 75 95 / 30 50 20 40 BTR 80 98 78 98 / 40 60 30 30 ASD 77 96 76 95 / 30 50 20 30 MSY 80 95 79 95 / 40 60 30 30 GPT 79 93 78 93 / 20 50 20 30 PQL 78 96 76 96 / 20 40 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....JZ AVIATION...RW MARINE...JZ