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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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926 FXUS64 KLIX 140842 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 342 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An upper level ridge is currently centered near the 4-Corners and loosely extends across the southern CONUS. Its quite a bit flatter east of Texas due to a shortwave tracking across the northern quarter of the country. This pattern is relatively typical for summer locally with diurnally driven convection what`s to be expected. The biggest question is initiation timing and coverage. Day after day, spatial coverage has been generally quite a bit lower than NBM forecast. CAMs have done a decent job relatively speaking. They generally show late morning to early afternoon before inland storms develop along seabreeze boundaries and then propagating in whatever direction the outflow boundaries dictate. Urban flash flooding will be the greatest potential impact with storms. For coverage/POP forecast, again went much less than the NBM which has been way too high lately. At any given time, might not even be more than isolated, though overall areal coverage at the end of the day will be more in line with scattered. Otherwise, the arguably more large scale weather impact today (and well into next week) will be continued heat. Increased 500mb heights from ridge to the west will continue to support mid/upper 90 degree highs. That, combined with upper 70 to low 80 dewpoints, will again bring heat indices in the 108 to 112 degree range for most of the CWA. Did decide to add a targeted Excessive Heat Warning along areas adjacent to Lake Pontchartrain. What drove this decision was looking at KNEW observations yesterday. Seabreeze winds helped to maintain upper 70 dewpoints even in the peak heating hours. This resulted in a max daytime heat index of 115 degrees. So thinking is that potential heat index will be possible again today at any location around the Lake. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The remainder of the forecast period, which runs through Saturday, really hasn`t changed much at all outside of relatively small changes in day-to-day rain chances. Heat will still be the biggest impact. The upper ridge centered west of the CWA will remain expanded across the southern half of the country. That`ll keep highs in the mid to upper 90s. Not going to see much nighttime relief from heat and have increased forecast lows 1-3 degrees above the cool- biased NBM. Even through convective coverage will vary from scattered to numerous each day, still probably will need a heat advisory for 5 consecutive days, with the potential for a small portion of the forecast area to need an Excessive Heat Warning early/mid next week. It`s the end of this portion of the forecast period that global models suggest that a fairly amplified upper trough dives south across the eastern 1/3 of the US. That would certainly break down the ridge aloft and lead to temps closer to climo. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours. This could impact the terminals resulting in temporary gusty winds and VIS restrictions due to brief heavy rain. Probability at any given location/time is fairly low, so for the time being have included only vicinity groups. However, as confidence in timing and location increase, tempo groups may be added. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The area will remain under surface ridge for the most part, although the center will not always be aloft during the forecast period. That means winds and seas wont` be much impact outside of convection, with seas 2 feet or less throughout the period. Otherwise, typical summertime nocturnal to early morning showers and storms expected with brief gusty winds and waterspouts the main threats. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 73 93 73 / 50 30 60 10 BTR 96 79 97 80 / 30 20 60 0 ASD 95 80 94 81 / 40 20 70 10 MSY 95 81 93 82 / 30 20 70 10 GPT 93 79 92 80 / 30 30 60 10 PQL 96 77 95 79 / 40 30 50 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056-057-059-064-065-071-079-081- 083-085-086-088>090. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-060-076>078-080-082-084-087. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...DM MARINE...ME