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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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437 FXUS64 KLIX 161109 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 609 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Another hot day expected across the region as upper level heights/thicknesses remain elevated with the close proximity to the mid level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic. Like days past, late afternoon or early evening convection will again be possible, however, similar to yesterday, CAMs and globals suggest coverage will be extremely limited. Consensus blends are still very bullish with POPs so decided the best course of action would be to cut those in half based on both globals QPF and stat guidances. With plenty of low level moisture and temperatures soaring into the mid 90s for most of the region, kept the heat advisory unchanged meaning most outside of coastal Louisiana are under the heat headline today. Tonight convection will again decrease across the landbased zones. Going into Wednesday the upper level pattern begins to change. An upper level weakness begins to shift south toward our region from the mid MS River Valley. This transitions our upper level flow to a more southwesterly direction. Still expecting hot conditions again being on the northwest periphery of the upper ridge. At the surface, return flow will continue to pump plenty of low level moisture into the region. This will result in heat index values likely reaching heat advisory criteria across most of the region on Wednesday as well. A bit better rain chance on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening, but largely the highest POPs will be found just beyond the scope of the short term period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The long term period can simply be characterized by a wetter and cooler pattern. A mid level weakness will remain in place allowing for an active southwesterly flow to set up over the region through the entire long term period. A surface front will move southward as the weakness positions over the region...eventually stalling along the Gulf Coast. This feature will provide support for enhancing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms each day. With weak steering and ample moisture (Pwats generally around 2.0" give or take) hydro concerns may evolve, especially over poor drainage and urbanized locations that receive multiple storms (training/back-building convection). Exact totals will vary widely given the nature of T`storms, but coverage will be that it can be inferred that most locations can expect and inch or two at least from Day 3 through Day 7. As for a severe component, synoptics are not indicating much outside typical pulse type strong wind gust potential. With the enhanced coverage of storms and earlier initiation, temperatures will be held down just a bit...closer to average or maybe a degree or two below. That would mean a less likelihood for heat headlines, especially closer to the weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the cycle. There will be late afternoon or early evening convection (generally after 2000z and before 0200z), but the low coverage limited to only using VCs for now. A short fused TEMPO could be possible, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. Southerly winds are anticipated to remain light, however, around convection winds may become a bit higher and more variable. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Mainly benign marine conditions through this forecast period. Generally, a southerly or onshore flow is anticipated through the workweek and into the upcoming weekend with winds generally around or less than 10kts. That said, diurnally driven convection will be possible during the late night hours through the morning. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the strongest convection. With the generally light low level flow and likelihood of outflow boundaries from previous convection the evening before, waterspouts will also remain a threat. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 95 74 94 74 / 30 30 60 20 BTR 97 78 96 78 / 40 20 70 10 ASD 95 78 94 78 / 40 20 70 20 MSY 94 79 93 79 / 40 20 70 20 GPT 93 78 92 79 / 30 20 60 30 PQL 95 78 95 77 / 30 20 60 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF