643
FXUS64 KLIX 210331
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1031 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Weak frontal boundary appears to be sitting just north of a
Lafayette to the Baton Rouge area to the McComb area. Scattered
thunderstorms refired along this boundary right around sunset, but
have seen a diminishing trend over the last hour or so. This
boundary, along with an upper trough, separate a very moist
airmass from a rather dry one. Precipitable water values in the
moist air were near 2.1 inches on the LCH and LIX 00z soundings,
around the 90th percentile. To the north of the boundary, JAN
recorded 1.5 inch values and Shreveport was at 1.05 inches (10th
percentile).

As we saw last night, there`s still at least some potential for
redevelopment overnight. If storms do redevelop, there is
definitely the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

A ZFP update has been sent, but there are no real major changes
for most areas, more just to carry currently expected
temperature/dew point/precipitation trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Due to some drier air filtering in from the north, the area is
seeing only some isolated showers and storms with it clustered
east of I-55 and along/south of the I-10/I-12 corridor. However,
for this area, we have already had repeated rounds of rain the
past couple of days and the current line looks to be training a
bit, so where is some concern of isolated flash flooding.
Otherwise, there really has not been much change in the pattern so
it continues to be day to day diurnally driven hit and miss showers
and storms. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s
if showers and thunderstorms don`t impact an area. However if it
does it may be into the 70s and low 80s instead, but due to the
isolated nature of the rain today left it overall unchanged.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Not sure what to say other than it`s more of the same. We continue
to have the same summer pattern showers and storms through most of
the next week. Since the showers and storms continue for the
mostly foreseeable future, still keeping an eye on flash flooding
potential. PoP chances go down slightly and max temps go up as we
approach mid to late next week as the upper level ridge mostly
dominating over the western CONUS will drift eastward. We`ll still
have daily chances of storms but not as much as we`ve seen a few
days ago. But without the more widespread rain chances, high
temperatures will likely start creeping towards heat advisory
criteria again especially late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

While terminals were VFR at forecast issuance time, scattered
convection had redeveloped over the last hour from KLCH to KBTR.
This may be firing on lake/sea breeze boundaries, if radar and
satellite imagery is any indication. Convection allowing models
hold on to this convection until somewhere in the 03z-05z time
frame. Carrying VCTS right now in the KBTR forecast, but it won`t
take much more northward development to necessitate an amendment
for direct impacts. Once the evening convection dies out, VFR
conditions should predominate until right around sunrise, when
marine convection moves inland. Tomorrow is going to look a lot
like today with scattered SHRA/TSRA developing by mid-morning,
then dissipating around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Light onshore flow continues for the coastal waters for the whole
forecast period. Only concerns will be higher winds and waves in
and near thunderstorms and the possibility of waterspouts,
especially in the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  86  71  87 /  40  90  50  90
BTR  75  89  75  89 /  50  80  50  90
ASD  75  89  74  89 /  50  80  50  90
MSY  77  88  76  89 /  50  90  50  90
GPT  76  89  76  89 /  60  90  60  90
PQL  75  91  75  92 /  70  80  60  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...BL