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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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732 FXUS64 KLIX 181754 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Overall a fairly tranquil night across the CWFA with most of the convection having dissipated...at least across the landbased zones. Over the next few hours we`ll still see scattered showers and storms develop over the nearshore waters, which may drift over land from time to time, so through the near term continued with POPs mostly situated right along the immediate coast. Looking upstream, convection across the ArkLaTex has lingered for most of the evening and overnight. CAMs wanted to develop a MCV and move it southward toward our region through the day on Thursday, Taking a look at the radar from SHV, indeed, the MCV has developed across northeast Texas and will continue to move generally toward the southeast. How far or how long this feature persists is still in question, but this feature could lead to a better POP/QPF signal for today. That said, most guidances have a bit more of a drier signal for today so backed POPs off just a bit, but still kept them middle of the road. With the higher POPs today, no heat headline will be needed. However, if we continue to trend drier it wouldn`t be impossible to need a short fused heat adv this afternoon, especially if convection develops later and the coverage is less than that of yesterday. Regardless, where convection does occur it will produce very efficient/high rainfall rates. PWATs remain around 2.0" give or take. Also, cannot rule out a rogue strong wind gust or two in storms that contain the widest and more robust updrafts. The surface cold front should arrive later today and will meander around the CWFA through the remainder of the short term period. Rain chances going into the upcoming weekend will remain, even during diurnal min periods respectively with the weakness aloft and proximity of the cold front. A good bit of low level lift will be around so even convection (albeit likely more limited in coverage) will be possible during the nighttime hours. Otherwise, outside today, temperatures will drop to around or perhaps slightly below average going into the start of the weekend. Again, this will put the brakes on the need for heat advisories at least. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Active southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the entire long term/medium range as the upper level trough remains overhead. At the surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary will remain over the region. Overall, confidence continues in the very wet period from this upcoming weekend and right into the start of the new workweek. PWAT values will remain close to 2.0" each day, perhaps slightly higher at times leading to potential flash flooding concerns almost on a daily basis. In fact, WPC has delineated a marginal risk for our region through their experimental outlook domain. A secondary threat would be an isolated strong wind gust or two. The pattern again remains the same but the only other mentionable entity would be a weak wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which may enhance low level moisture further and for this reason continued the higher than average (at least for this range) POPs. As for temperatures, expect the below average trend that evolves in the short term to continue through the long term period as clouds and rainfall will hold temperatures down to a more manageable level...or at least a bit more comfortable. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 TAFs will be VFR conditions through the first half of the cycle outside of convection. As of the time this was written, a line of storms is approaching BTR so put prevailing TSRA for that starting at the bottom of the hour. Otherwise, generally went with VCTS or tempo groups where needed. Tomorrow will have even lower ceilings with widespread IFR/MVFR and lower ceilings if any embedded storms directly impact a terminal. BL/HD && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Generally favorable marine conditions through this forecast period. A light onshore flow is anticipated through the remainder of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend with winds generally around or less than 10kts outside of convection. That said, convection will be possible, especially during the late night hours through the morning. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the strongest activity. With the generally light low level flow and likelihood of outflow boundaries from previous convection, waterspouts will also remain a threat. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 84 70 87 / 70 90 60 90 BTR 75 89 76 90 / 60 90 60 90 ASD 75 89 75 90 / 80 100 80 100 MSY 77 88 77 89 / 80 100 70 100 GPT 76 88 76 89 / 80 100 80 100 PQL 76 90 76 91 / 90 100 80 100 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...BL MARINE...RDF