584
FXUS64 KLIX 191955
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Due to a deep upper level trough over the SE CONUS and a weak low
pressure heading into central MS, a stationary front is lingering
over the area. This is allowing for moisture from the Gulf to
propagate into and making PWs range from 2-2.25 inch approaching
up to 2.5 in Friday evening. With all this moisture, a good chance
of storm development will continue over the next couple of days.
The main issue with these storms will be the possibility of
flooding as they are going to be most heavy with rainfall. A few
of these storms have the potential to become severe.


While it may feel like you`re swimming through the air, at least
this means the heat index values are much lower this week compared
to the previous two weeks. As actual temperatures range from the
70s through the next few days and upper 80s throughout the
respective daytime, heat index values remain in the low to mid
90s, as opposed to the above 100 values we`ve been seeing earlier
in the month.

TH/BL



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

It`s basically a persistence forecast at this point due to
stagnating upper level ridge over the western part of the CONUS
and troughing just over us. So the usual daily diurnal rain/storm
chances continues through next week with the usual afternoon
storms on land and storms on the coast and the nearby waters in
the morning. High PWs in excess of 2 in continue to pump in from
the Gulf so these storms will continue to be very efficient
rainmakers. With so many places having seen some rain, the flash
flood potential has increased very slightly as soils get more
moist. But we still remain in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall from WPC for the foreseeable future in the forecast
period with the biggest concerns being our metro areas and places
that seen repeated rounds of rain these past few days, and the
highest chance on one day would be on Wednesday.

Due to the relatively high PoP chances, have lowered the high
temperatures respectively a bit but that will be very hit and miss
too since it highly depends on how much one spot gets rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024
Conditions will widely vary depending on if terminals are being
impacted by thunderstorms or not. But in general if no convection
is nearby, VFR to MVFR conditions are expected while ones being
impacted by storms, that could be IFR or lower due to both vis and
ceilings. There is currently a line just east of I-55 moving
eastward and timed that out as much as possible, but unfortunately
due to the high PoP chances had to leave VCTS/tempo groups for
most of today. For tomorrow, it`ll be more of the same
unfortunately. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024
Wind wise, conditions remain benign for the coastal waters with a
light roughly southerly wind of up to 10 knots possible. The only
issue is the daily showers and storms which could have locally
higher winds and waves. This is most likely in the early morning
hours but some spots could have some later in the day into the
afternoon. Waterspouts have been occuring in spots and will
continue to be possible especially in the morning hours. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  88  71  87 /  60  60  30  90
BTR  75  91  76  90 /  40  60  30  90
ASD  75  89  75  89 /  50  80  50 100
MSY  77  88  77  88 /  40  80  50 100
GPT  75  88  76  89 /  80  70  60  90
PQL  75  90  76  92 /  90  70  70  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TH/BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL