605
FXUS64 KLIX 072324
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
624 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A broad upper level trough continues to be centered along the
midsection of the country from the Dakotas to Oklahoma...
encompassing all but the western/eastern fringes of the country. As
of 2p, Tropical Storm Beryl isolated in the western Gulf of Mexico,
centered roughly 125 miles east of Brownsville Texas. The storm is
forecast to continue northwestward this afternoon, making landfall
along the Texas coast Monday morning. The CWA is on the outer
periphery of Beryl and subsidence from it has been part of the
suppression of convection so far this afternoon. The other big factor
is dry air wrapping around the eastern side of Beryl. Blended TPW
product from GOES Sat has been showing PW around 1.7" and the KLIX
18Z sounding confirmed that, measuring 1.65". The CAMs continue to
capture lack of precip in the near term vs global models, which the
NBM has been favoring lately. Thus, have trended tonight and Monday
morning POPs closer to those drier members of guidance.

Then, when it comes to heat, going ahead with a heat advisory for
much of the CWA. Left out some SW MS counties and a few adjacent LA
parishes as well as northern halves of the coastal MS counties.
Might be a little too conservative but lower dewpoints should help
limit heat indices somewhat. If surrounding WFO`s do decide to
issue a heat advisory, may have to expand ours to simplify public
messaging.

The biggest thing to watch after this weekend will be isolate areas
of heavy rainfall. As the remnants of Beryl are being absorbed by
the upper trough to the north and track east across the lower
Mississippi Valley. As seen in previous decaying tropical systems
tracking northward, models show the trough dragging a tail of
rainfall along the eastern side of the remnants extending from the
base of the trough/remnant Beryl to well south into the Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday. Forecast PW`s in the 2.4-2.6"
aren`t surprising and quite concerning, especially when combined
with ample instability in place. No  way to know where one of these
tropical rain bands lines up but with very efficient precip
processes expected, certainly could see some surprisingly high
streaks of very heavy rainfall.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The local area falls into a very typical summertime pattern for the
remainder of the week. The broad upper level trough over the
majority of the country today will shift eastward Thursday.
Strengthening upper ridge in its wake will expand across the Rockies
Friday into this weekend. That still leaves the CWA neither under
high pressure or troughing. Combine that with normal summer daytime
heating and should have scattered to numerous pop-up afternoon
thunderstorms. Should see temps lower closer to normal, which will
be a nice break from very hot conditions lately.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

All terminals were VFR at 23z. Would note that there is a
northward moving band of showers/storms just west of the
Atchafalaya River Basin that would only have to shift about 30SM
eastward to impact KHUM/KBTR this evening. For now, won`t carry
mention in those terminals, but cannot rule out future amendments.
Generally, VFR conditions are expected overnight. There should be
enough air movement to prevent very low conditions (fog)
overnight. MVFR ceilings are possible as the cumulus field
develops at mid-morning Monday. Will only mention VCSH at KHUM
during the day at this time. Winds may be a bit more of an issue
on Monday as pressure gradient increases. Sustained winds near 15
knots likely at western terminals, and wouldn`t be surprised to
see gusts exceeding 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A broad upper level trough is centered along the midsection of the
country and encompasses all but the western/eastern fringes of the
country. Also, Tropical Storm Beryl is located in the western Gulf
of Mexico, centered roughly 125 miles east of Brownsville Texas. The
storm is forecast to continue northwestward this afternoon, making
landfall along the Texas coast Monday morning. The overall size and
wind field of Beryl is quite a bit smaller in size compared to
Alberto from June. This has and will limit the extent of stronger
winds locally. Marine obs today have persistently shown generally
light southeasterly with exercise caution speeds only west of the
mouth of the MS river. That should continue to be the case through
Monday. Monday night into Tuesday night, exercise caution conditions
will spread across more of the local area as the remnants of Beryl
eject northward. Beyond that, benign conditions return to the
coastal waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  75  90 /   0  60  40 100
BTR  79  97  80  94 /  10  60  60 100
ASD  77  94  79  92 /   0  60  50 100
MSY  80  94  81  92 /  10  60  60 100
GPT  79  92  79  91 /   0  60  60 100
PQL  77  95  79  94 /   0  60  40 100

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>036-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-070-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068-086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME