Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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968 FXUS64 KLIX 040228 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 928 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ZFP updated due to expiration of today`s heat related advisory/warning. Hourly temperature and dew point grids were updated earlier to handle observed trends, but not overnight lows. Most precipitation has dissipated, but as has been the case frequently the last few weeks, there`s likely to be additional showers and/or storms moving off the Gulf into coastal parishes/counties toward sunrise. Overall, no major changes to afternoon forecast package. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The region continues to bake under a 595dam heat bubble centered over the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon. Heat Advisory thresholds were already met by 10am this morning with many locations exceeding Excessive Heat thresholds in those areas under the warning. The good news is convection, albeit rather low coverage has developed in response to the interactions between lake/sea breezes and a weak surface trough over the region. Steering for storms is weak, generally only outflow propagation. This as we have seen lead to slow motion and even some back building over portions of the southshore leading to some localized street flooding in and around Metairie. Convection will begin to decrease with the loss of daytime heating later on this evening and will likely become more focused right along the coast or just offshore. Going into Independence Day, very similar to today with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Heights/thicknesses are ever so slightly below where they are today...in terms of heights about 2dam lower, so this may help just a bit to keep temps a degree or two lower as well. At this juncture, continued the heat advisory for Thursday with heat index values still between 108 and 112 respectively with the highest remaining along and west of the I55 corridor in Louisiana. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Going into late in the week and the upcoming weekend, the upper level ridge will begin to wither away from the northwest as a broad upper level trough begins to suppress the H5 ridge to the south and east. At the surface a weak front will move into the region...align with the mean upper flow and stall. This will increase rain chances, but also with heights decreasing, this will also help with limiting the excessive heat for just a bit. Still looking a temperatures in the lower 90s, but with more convective coverage around during peak heating, this should keep us from maxing out on the afternoon highs. Looking southward across the western portions of the Caribbean and far southwest Gulf, Hurricane Beryl...or what`s left of the system will continue to move around the southern periphery of the aforementioned H5 ridge (yes, the one that`s kept the oppressive heat around our area). Both Globals and High Resolution tropical models alike suggest that this feature will cross the Yucatan sometime late Friday through the day on Saturday and reemerge into the Bay of Campeche (weaker naturally due to land interaction) and then continues to perhaps gradually strength downstream until it makes landfall along the coast of Tamaulipas, Mexico or near the Rio Grande Valley. As the aforementioned trough that weakens the western periphery of the upper level high continues to dig across the Red River Valley, Beryl should begin to move slightly more north of due West. However, exact track will be highly dependent on the intensity of the system. A slightly stronger system than currently anticipated could be pull more northward into Texas by having a much deeper steering flow and feeling the trough`s weakness to the north. Or, if Beryl is weaker (which after all the shear, dry air, and land interactions seems like a good bet), the system will have a more shallow steer flow meaning it would likely continue to feel the western push more than the poleward pull of the trough. Either/or locally, no direct impacts anticipated at this time. With Hurricane Beryl going inland well southwest of our region, expect the stalled front to provide us with more afternoon shower and thunderstorm heat relief through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek next week. Pending some rather significant temperatures adjustments in the medium range, this weekend and early next week appear free of any need for heat headlines. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Most terminals VFR at issuance time, with the exception of KHUM, which was reporting MVFR conditions with a thunderstorm in the area. Convection will be dying out in the next hour or two, with VFR conditions the remainder of the night. MVFR ceilings will develop around 14z Thursday as the cumulus field develops. Isolated SHRA during the morning will likely grow into scattered TSRA around midday. For now, will use PROB30 for the afternoon hours, with no confidence of a specific terminal being impacted. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure remains in control across the area and should remain in place through the remainder of the workweek. This will allow for mostly benign marine conditions to continue through the holiday and perhaps into the start of the holiday weekend. That said, eyes begin to focus across the Yucatan Channel and eventually across the southwest Gulf/Bay of Campeche where Hurricane Beryl will track going into the weekend. At this juncture, only very minimal indirect impacts are expected with slightly higher seas from a building swell again courtesy of Beryl. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 92 75 92 / 30 60 10 50 BTR 80 95 80 96 / 30 60 10 50 ASD 79 94 79 94 / 30 60 10 50 MSY 80 92 80 94 / 30 60 10 50 GPT 79 91 78 92 / 30 60 10 50 PQL 78 94 78 95 / 20 60 10 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RDF