Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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077 FXUS64 KLCH 151102 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 602 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Another hot and humid day is anticipated, it must be August! The ridge aloft will remain in place today, however a slight weakness in the ridge is located across eastern LA into MS. A ridge at the surface is centered over the northern gulf with a weak back door frontal boundary draped from roughly around Vicksburg to Mobile. With the ridge in place another above normal temp day will occur. Highs will run around 5 degrees above climo normals for the date. This combined with our typical humid air mass will produce apparent temperatures in the 106 to 112 range. As previously stated, there is a bit of a weakness in the vicinity which may allow a scattering of afternoon convection, but mainly across the heart of Acadiana and across the Atchafalaya Basin after peak heating is reached. Farther west and north and under the stronger portion of the ridge lesser chances are anticipated, however an isolated storm along the sea breeze may occur. Surprise, Friday will be hot again, however rain chances will be slightly higher, but still mainly across Acadiana as the slight weakness drifts west. This will allow afternoon storms to affect more of the area, and depending on timing some areas may not meet the heat adv criteria of 108 HI. No real change for Saturday. It will warm and humid again with scattered storms possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon, but mainly in Acadiana. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The extended period continues to be dominated by a broad upper level ridge extending across much of the southern U.S. This ridge will keep PoPs very low and limited generally to within a few miles of the coastline through much of the upcoming week. Guidance continues to back off the weak frontal passage that was initially anticipated for the weekend, but is now indicating a similar boundary pushing through the region late Monday into Tuesday. Obviously, confidence is low on this one now, but should it actually materialize, guidance does depict dewpoints falling back into the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle and latter parts of next week. Even with the potential fropa, ensembles still don`t paint any appreciable PoPs with it. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated, however afternoon thunderstorms will be possible along the sea breeze. Most convection will be near KARA and KLFT, although KLCH and KBPT will have a low chance of storm in the vicinity. Winds will be light through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Weak ridging will remain in place through the weekend. This will keep light winds and low seas in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 20 0 LCH 95 78 94 79 / 20 10 40 10 LFT 98 80 96 79 / 30 30 60 10 BPT 96 78 96 78 / 20 0 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...05