275
FXUS64 KLCH 131903
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
203 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Weak high pressure is across northern gulf coast this afternoon
which is keeping winds generally light and VRB outside of
thunderstorms. Aloft, a ridge is over the SE states and another
over the desert SW while a short wave is between these features
over TX. The light surface wind in place is allowing the sea
breeze to push inland while the typical airmass storms are located
farther inland. Convection will continue to blossom through the
next couple hrs during max heating as no capping feature is in
place locally due to the area being between the upper ridges and
under the influence of the short wave over TX. A near repeat is
anticipated for Sunday.

The ridge over the SE states may attempt to nudge into the area
early next week, however the weakness aloft over TX may also
linger in the vicinity. This may decrease pops somewhat for Monday
and Tuesday, however isolated to widely scattered afternoon
convection may still occur with the area being roughly between
these features. A very slight increase in temps may also occur
with convection being a little more limited. This may bump
apparent temps to around 108 for more of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

During the second half of the work week a trough is anticipated to
dig into the eastern CONUS. This may send a cold front into the
Deep South. While no cooling is expected, rain chances will
increase once again with the surface boundary in place in the
vicinity of the gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are present across the region with a scattered
cloud deck between 3000-6000 FT. A second higher cloud deck is
overcast above 15 kft. Through the afternoon pop-up showers and
thunderstorms will be forming across the region. Winds will be
light and variable except near outflows where winds will be
stronger and chaotic. Overnight there will be a small chance for
patchy fog, but not enough to put in the prevailing group.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Light and variable to onshore winds and low seas are expected to
prevail over the weekend and into early next week as surface high
pressure remains over the northern Gulf coast. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible, mainly from late
night into early afternoon. Locally higher waves/winds may occur
with any stronger storms.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  74  95 /  20  60   0  30
LCH  76  90  77  91 /  20  60   0  40
LFT  76  94  77  95 /  20  70   0  60
BPT  76  92  76  92 /  20  60   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ029-033-044-045-
     055-152>154-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14