157
FXUS64 KLCH 152031
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
331 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The heat is on this afternoon with max heat index readings from
reliable observation sites ranging from 104F to 112F. With max
heating, a few showers and storms are developing near the sea
breeze along the coast and along the Atchafalaya Basin convergence
zone. This is where the activity for the remainder of the
afternoon will be possible, then slowly diminishing after sunset.
With the activity developing during max heating, a few strong
cells will be possible with gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent
cloud to ground lightning.

For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will retrograde
some to the west opening up a weakness aloft where a short wave
dropping down from the Northern Plains will be able to move into.
However, it does not look like the short wave will be strong
enough to push a surface frontal boundary down into the forecast
area.

Still, with the weakness developing aloft, plenty of Gulf
moisture, and daytime heating, a better dose of scattered showers
and thunderstorms should be able to develop, especially during max
heating times, and over eastern portions of the forecast area,
where the weakness aloft will be best.

Will hold on to another heat advisory on Friday despite the
increase in rain chances, as most of the convection is expected to
develop during max heating late in the day, allowing afternoon
heat index readings again to reach in the 104F to 112F range.

On Saturday, again timing of the convection will dictate the need
of a heat advisory or not. At the moment, the convention wisdom is
that convection will again be late in the day, allowing heat
advisory conditions to be met.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The upper level ridge is expected to regain control across the
forecast area on Sunday. This will limit any convection and rain
chances. Instead, very hot and humid conditions can be expected,
with even an uptick in the heat index readings as higher low level
moisture and dew point air will pool ahead of a stalled frontal
boundary just north of the forecast area. Therefore, there is some
potential that an excessive heat warning may be needed during the
afternoon hours on Sunday.

Ridging aloft is expected to hold from early to mid next week.
This again will limit any rain chances. As for any heat hazards,
that will depend on the stalled frontal boundary to the north and
if it can get a push through the forecast area early next week.
The deterministic values from the NBM show some lower dew point
air by Monday for northern sections, then the entire forecast area
on Tuesday that would drop max heat index readings below any
advisory criteria. However, this forecast is of a low confidence
as the lower afternoon dew point readings and lower night time
lows are on the bottom end of ensemble whisker plots.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

An upper level ridge is helping to suppress most convection this
afternoon. However, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop
during max heating near the sea breeze and also near the
Atchafalaya Basin convergence zone. Therefore, will have VCTS
after 15/20z for terminals KARA/KLFT/KLCH/KBPT. Any activity that
does develop will diminish after sunset.

Away from any convection, VFR conditions will prevail with light
winds.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak surface high pressure system will remain across the northern
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. This will keep mainly light
onshore winds and low seas in the forecast.

The upper level ridge will break down briefly on Friday into
Saturday, and this may allow for slightly higher shower and
thunderstorm activity over the coastal waters, especially east of
Intracoastal City. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms
over the outer waters will be during the night and early morning,
and over the near shore waters during the afternoon into early
evening hours.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  99  75  98 /  10  30   0  20
LCH  79  95  78  95 /  10  50  10  40
LFT  80  97  80  98 /  20  60  10  40
BPT  78  96  78  97 /   0  30   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07