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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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998 FXUS64 KLCH 090009 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 709 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Wx map shows Tropical Storm Beryl inland across East Texas centered just west of Lufkin, moving northeast around 15 mph. Will be continuing the Tropical Storm Warnings from Sabine Pass, TX to High Island, as well as Jefferson, Hardin, and Tyler counties for the next few hours. Sustained winds near tropical storm force with higher gusts expected. These warnings expected to be lowered by 7 PM as Beryl lifts further northeast and weakens. Storm surge continues along the coast, and further north Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake. Storm Surge Warning continues for Jefferson for water levels 3-5 feet MHHW. Coastal Flood Watch continues for Lower Orange, Lower Calcasieu, Cameron parishes for water levels 2-3 feet MHHW. Further east, issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for water levels near 1.5 feet MHHW across Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia, Lower St. Mary parishes through 1 PM Tuesday. Periods of rainbands will continue to advance eastward across Southeast Texas and Louisiana this evening and mainly along the I-10 corridor southward from Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana overnight through Tuesday. Rainfall expected to diminish by Tuesday night as the remnants of Beryl moves across the Northeast U.S. Wednesday should see higher chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-10 of Louisiana, with much lower chances further north. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon, can be expected Wednesday through Saturday as lingering moisture across the Northern Gulf of Mexico interacts with daytime heating. Lows in the lower to mid 70s, and highs in the lower to mid 90s expected. Heat index values in the 100-105 Thursday and Friday, and 102-108 Saturday and Sunday, getting close to Heat Advisory criteria. 08/DML .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Beryl centered around 45 miles NNW of Houston continues to move north northeast around 13 mph. Several rainbands streaming north will cause tropical storm conditions at BPT, recently gusting to 49 kts. Expect the LIFR visibility/ceilings and gusty winds within the rainbands, with some improvement outside the rainband. Similar conditions expected at LCH, except slightly lower winds. Further east at AEX/LFT/ARA, expect southeast to south winds around 15-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts possible within the rainbands. Improvement expected overnight into Tuesday. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 One long rainband associated with Beryl just east of the Sabine river late this afternoon, slowly moving east. This will likely affect LCH/AEX within the next couple of hours, and LFT/ARA later this evening. Placed appropriate tempo groups for this passage with IFR visibility/ceilings and gusty winds. Outside the rainband, south to south southwest winds around 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts this afternoon will slowly subside this evening and overnight, but remain elevated Further east at AEX/LFT/ARA, expect southeast to south winds around 15-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts possible within the rainbands. Improvement expected overnight into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Beryl continues to move north northeast across East Texas this afternoon. Tropical storm force winds will continue through early evening, with winds and seas slowly subsiding overnight through Tuesday. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 88 69 92 / 80 20 10 10 LCH 73 90 74 91 / 70 30 20 30 LFT 77 91 75 93 / 70 50 20 40 BPT 73 91 74 92 / 40 20 20 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ073-074-241. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ252>254. TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-515-615. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ616. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ432-452-455- 472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...08