101
FXUS64 KLCH 090211
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
911 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The tornado threat continues to diminish therefore the watch was
canceled for the last few parishes.

Elsewhere, all tropical hazards were dropped a couple hrs ago with
the winds falling below tropical storm force. Tides continue to be
elevated and the marshes and lower sections of the area rives may
take a bit to drain. The coastal flood adv will remain in effect
into Tuesday morning.

No other changes are planned for this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows Tropical Depression Beryl inland across Northeast
Texas about 30 miles east southeast of Tyler, moving north
northeast around 16 mph. All tropical storm and storm surge
warnings are being discontinued at this time. With the coastal
tides going into low tide cycle, not expecting additional
significant impacts. Will possibly have elevated tides through the
next tide cycle with tides reaching near 1.5 feet MHHW, thus kept
a Coastal Flood Advisory for all coastal zones through 1 PM
Tuesday. For the coastal waters, keeping Small Craft Advisory
through 1 PM Tuesday, although this may be able to be dropped
earlier with winds and seas subsiding. Minor updates to precipitation
forecast this evening as current line advances eastward, still
expecting additional development along and south of I-10 overnight
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)

Wx map shows Tropical Storm Beryl inland across East Texas centered
just west of Lufkin, moving northeast around 15 mph. Will be
continuing the Tropical Storm Warnings from Sabine Pass, TX to High
Island, as well as Jefferson, Hardin, and Tyler counties for the
next few hours. Sustained winds near tropical storm force with
higher gusts expected. These warnings expected to be lowered by 7 PM
as Beryl lifts further northeast and weakens.

Storm surge continues along the coast, and further north Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake. Storm Surge Warning continues for Jefferson for
water levels 3-5 feet MHHW. Coastal Flood Watch continues for Lower
Orange, Lower Calcasieu, Cameron parishes for water levels 2-3 feet
MHHW. Further east, issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for water levels
near 1.5 feet MHHW across Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia, Lower St.
Mary parishes through 1 PM Tuesday.

Periods of rainbands will continue to advance eastward across
Southeast Texas and Louisiana this evening and mainly along the
I-10 corridor southward from Southeast Texas and Southern
Louisiana overnight through Tuesday. Rainfall expected to diminish
by Tuesday night as the remnants of Beryl moves across the
Northeast U.S. Wednesday should see higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-10 of Louisiana, with
much lower chances further north.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)

Elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon, can be expected Wednesday through Saturday as lingering
moisture across the Northern Gulf of Mexico interacts with daytime
heating. Lows in the lower to mid 70s, and highs in the lower to mid
90s expected. Heat index values in the 100-105 Thursday and Friday,
and 102-108 Saturday and Sunday, getting close to Heat Advisory
criteria.

08/DML

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Beryl centered around 45 miles NNW of Houston continues to move
north northeast around 13 mph. Several rainbands streaming north
will cause tropical storm conditions at BPT, recently gusting to
49 kts. Expect the LIFR visibility/ceilings and gusty winds within
the rainbands, with some improvement outside the rainband.
Similar conditions expected at LCH, except slightly lower winds.
Further east at AEX/LFT/ARA, expect southeast to south winds
around 15-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts possible within the
rainbands. Improvement expected overnight into Tuesday.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Beryl centered around 45 miles NNW of Houston continues to move
north northeast around 13 mph. Several rainbands streaming north
will cause tropical storm conditions at BPT, recently gusting to
49 kts. Expect the LIFR visibility/ceilings and gusty winds within
the rainbands, with some improvement outside the rainband.
Similar conditions expected at LCH, except slightly lower winds.
Further east at AEX/LFT/ARA, expect southeast to south winds
around 15-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts possible within the
rainbands. Improvement expected overnight into Tuesday.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  88  69  92 /  60  20  10  10
LCH  73  90  74  91 /  40  30  20  30
LFT  77  91  75  93 /  70  50  20  40
BPT  73  91  74  92 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ073-074-241-
     252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ430-432-450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08