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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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848 FXUS64 KLCH 112331 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Mid afternoon surface analysis shows a washed out stationary boundary draped near the south LA coast, while aloft ridging remains over the Southern Plains. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 90s, while dewpoints are in the mid 60s to low 70s, amid sunny skies area-wide. Heading into tonight, the stalled boundary should gradually slide further inland while becoming further washed out, before eventually dissipating early tomorrow. This will open the door for Gulf moisture to make its way back inland, with this afternoon being our last taste of drier air for a while. Overnight, dewpoints along and south of I-10 will surge back into the mid to upper 70s, while inland areas will take a bit longer for moisture to return. Early morning lows should fall into the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s closer to the coast. Moving into the work week, moisture return will result in afternoon highs warming into the mid to upper 90s once again tomorrow and Tuesday, while dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will yield afternoon heat indices in the low to mid 100s. Tomorrow it looks like we`ll remain below Heat Advisory criteria however, Tuesday some locations will likely flirt with heat indices in the 108-110 range, particularly across lower Acadiana, where an advisory will likely be needed. In addition, an increase in moisture may bring small rain chances back to the forecast this week, but don`t get your hopes up for any significant rain as the ridge aloft remains firmly in place overhead for the next several days. NBM wants to pain 15-30 POPs across the region for both tomorrow and Tuesday afternoon, so a few isolated showers do look possible however, capping aloft will likely limit any significant rainfall for time being. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The mid to upper level ridge will continue to be centered over the region trough Friday, retrograding slightly west by the weekend as a mid to upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. deepens. Above normal temperatures will continue through the extended. Morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 north of I-10, mid to upper 90s further south, with lower/mid 90s along the coast. Maximum heat index values 105 to 110 expected, possibly higher in some locations. Heat advisories may be needed for portions if not all of the area any given day. Limited low level moisture, coupled with afternoon heating, will yield isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor. Further north, chances expected to be even less. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions will persist as high pressure prevails aloft. Guidance is beginning to signal some isolated to widely scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA at the southern LA terminals in response to a weak seabreeze developing so included a VC mention for LCH/LFT/ARA. Winds are expected to remain light and mostly variable through the period. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Winds will gradually return to a southerly flow early tomorrow, with light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue through the week. Isolated to scattered convection is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain chances through the morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 97 75 98 / 0 10 0 10 LCH 77 94 79 94 / 0 30 0 40 LFT 77 98 80 98 / 0 30 0 30 BPT 77 95 78 96 / 0 20 0 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...24