202
FXUS64 KLCH 130327
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1027 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Afternoon convection has dissipated with the loss of daytime heat,
and residual cirrus clouds continue to thin and scatter this
evening per latest IR imagery. The passage of an outflow augmented
seabreeze late this afternoon allowed dewpoints to rise to the
upper 70s/near 80 degrees while bringing temperatures down a few
degrees, making conditions noticeably more humid. Warm and humid
conditions will continue overnight with quiet conditions under
mostly clear skies. Overnight lows are expected to only reach the
middle to upper 70s, with temps around 80 near the coast. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible again Tuesday
afternoon as sea and bay breezes become active again.

Made some minor adjustments to T/Td this evening to align with
recent obs, and to Td on Tuesday primarily in those locations
where NBM tends to run a degree or two too high. This lowered
apparent temperatures slightly in a few isolated locations but
values remain above advisory criteria nonetheless, with max values
between 108 and 113 degrees.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)

Wx map shows weakening frontal boundary over the region keeping a
fairly weak pressure gradient. Dewpoints have noticeably
increased back to climatological mid 70s for this time of year
along and south of I-10, still in the upper 60s to near 70 across
Inland Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. Temperatures this
afternoon range in the lower to upper 90s, with heat index values
in the 103-108 range. May see briefly higher numbers, but will
likely be short lived. Radar showing isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the coastal parishes and counties.
Expecting some additional development up to the I-10 corridor for
the remainder of the afternoon. For tonight, expect most of the
convection to dissipate by sunset, with increased shower and
thunderstorm chances across the coastal waters. Tuesday morning
low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near
80/lower 80s I-10 south.

For the remainder of Tuesday through Wednesday night, the mid to
upper level ridge will continue to be centered over the region,
continuing the above normal temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s along and south of the I-10 corridor,
upper 90s to near 100 further north. Maximum heat index values 108
to 113 expected, possibly higher in some locations. All areas, as
well as our neighboring offices, have issued a Heat Advisory
through late Tuesday morning through the early evening hours.
Wednesday morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s
north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. Later Wednesday
morning into the afternoon hours, preliminary forecast numbers
will be very similar to Tuesday, and chances for another Heat
Advisory across the entire area remain high.

Limited low level moisture, coupled with afternoon heating, will
yield isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the I-10
corridor. Further north, chances expected to be even less with the
greater suppression of the mid to upper level ridge.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)

Ridging aloft will remain anchored over the Southern Plains
throughout the long term period, while weak surface high pressure
will meander around the northern Gulf of Mexico. With little day to
day changes in the synoptic pattern expected through the end of the
week into the weekend, a rather repetitive hot and dry forecast will
persist.  Temperature wise, we will continue to see highs in the mid
to upper 90s each day, while overnight lows will generally fall into
the mid to upper 70s. In addition, heat indices will likely continue
to flirt with or exceed heat advisory criteria each day, especially
along the I-49 corridor and across lower Acadiana.

Otherwise, minimal rain chances are expected to continue, generally
around 15-30% each afternoon, with the highest POPs expected across
lower Acadiana where the influence of the upper ridge will be
slightly less. Any showers that do form will be solely driven by the
seabreeze and daytime heating, and will have to overcome the cap in
place aloft, which should keep coverage isolated to widely scattered
at best.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms developed offshore and moved
into Acadiana this afternoon, signaling the return of southerly
flow and diurnal convection. The afternoon 00Z RAOB also reports
the return of surface moisture which should allow for some widely
scattered, VFR clouds to hang around the region overnight.

Tomorrow, expect a somewhat breezy south wind, generally less
than 10 knots, a widely scattered VFR cloud deck and afternoon
convection along the coastline. Near to storms there should be frequent
lightning, variable, turbulent winds and reduced visibility due
to heavy rainfall.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue
through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain
chances through the morning hours.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  97  75  99 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  79  95  79  94 /  10  30  10  20
LFT  78  98  79  98 /  10  40  10  20
BPT  79  95  79  95 /  10  30   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11