631
FXUS64 KLCH 130820
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
320 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A ridge in the mid and upper levels will continue to dominate the
area`s weather through the short term. While the ridge is not
directly overhead for today scattered showers and storms will be
possible along the sea breeze with lesser chances farther inland.
Isolated diurnal storms will be possible in Cen LA and the SE TX
lakes region. High temps that are running around 5 degrees above
normal for the date will combine with the typically high August
humidity to produce apparent temps in the 105 to 110 range.

The ridge will move closer through mid week with afternoon
convection decreasing from the already meager coverage. Heat
headlines are expected to continue as well with temperatures even
increasing a bit.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The extended forecast is persistence based one with little day to
day variability through the weekend and early next week. Upper level
ridging over the southern plains will keep diurnal PoPs below climo
normals in the 20-30% range each afternoon along with below normal
cloud cover. This combination will see afternoon highs climbing into
the mid to upper 90s each day with heat indices between 105-110. At
the surface, a weak pressure gradient will yield winds primarily
driven by daily sea breeze development and any outflow boundaries
from the scarce convection.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Latest RAP13 analysis indicates high pressure has expanded from
north Texas to the southeast, including much of Louisiana. The
only clouds present are those left over from afternoon convection.
VFR clouds around 5000 feet were included in overnight TAFs as
moisture moved back in this afternoon; overnight radiational
cooling should allow for this cloud level to develop.

Tuesday, expect a somewhat breezy south wind, generally less than
10 knots, a VFR cloud deck and widely scattered afternoon
convection along the coastline. Best chance for convection will be
near lower Acadiana where moisture pooling is more likely to take
place. Near to storms there should be frequent lightning,
variable, turbulent winds and reduced visibility due to heavy
rainfall.

Convection will come to an end once again after sundown.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue
through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain
chances through the morning hours.

08/05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  75  98  76 /  20  10  10   0
LCH  94  79  95  79 /  50  10  30   0
LFT  98  80  98  79 /  50  20  30   0
BPT  95  78  95  78 /  40  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05