124
FXUS64 KLCH 140000
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
700 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge over the Eastern
U.S. and Gulf, keeping light south to southwest winds across the
region. Temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s, expecting
mid to upper 90s before the afternoon is over. Dewpoints remain in
the mid to upper 70s, with maximum heat index values 108 to 113
expected this afternoon. Heat Advisory continues through 8 PM.
Radar showing earlier scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the coastal parishes/counties and adjacent coastal waters have
diminished greatly. Latest HRRR guidance shows  coverage as well.
Thus, lowered PoPs for this afternoon by about 10% into the
20-40% range. For tonight, mostly clear skies and warm. Low
temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near
80/lower 80s I-10 south.

For Wednesday through Thursday night, the mid to upper level
ridge will continue to be centered right over Louisiana and Texas,
continuing the above normal temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s along and south of the I-10 corridor,
upper 90s to near 100 further north. Maximum heat index values 108
to 113 expected, possibly higher in some locations. All areas, as
well as our neighboring offices, have issued a Heat Advisory from
late Wednesday morning through the early evening hours. Wednesday
morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of
I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. Later Thursday morning into
the afternoon hours, preliminary forecast numbers will be very
similar to Wednesday, and chances for another Heat Advisory across
the entire area remain high.

With the influence of the upper level ridge and the limited mid
level moisture, only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
along the I-10 corridor southward can be expected, with even less
chances further north.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)

Ridging aloft will remain anchored from the southern Rockies to the
southern Plains throughout the long term period, with the CWA
remaining generally on the southeastern edge of the ridge. With
little day to day changes in the synoptic pattern expected through
the weekend into early next week, a rather repetitive hot and dry
forecast will persist. Temperature wise, we will continue to see
highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees, while overnight lows will
generally fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. In addition, heat
indices will likely continue to flirt with or exceed heat advisory
criteria each day, especially along the I-49 corridor and across
lower Acadiana.

Otherwise, minimal rain chances are expected to continue, with NBM
painting POPs around 15-40% each afternoon. With the influence of
the ridge being weaker on our eastern edge, lower Acadiana will
likely see the best rain chances each afternoon. Any showers that do
form will be solely driven by the seabreeze and daytime heating, and
will have to overcome the cap in place aloft, which should keep
coverage isolated to widely scattered at best.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Generally VFR conditions and only isolated thunderstorms are
ongoing at this hour. Convection is already showing sign of
winding down and should be over by 01Z. Low clouds will clear out
and only light cirrus aloft will prevail overnight. This little
cloud cover should stop most fog from developing.

Expect similar conditions tomorrow after 15Z with the diurnal
cycle bringing about more showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Convection will be isolated to scattered in nature with
local impacts of gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...

Light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue
through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain
chances through the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  99  76  99 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  79  94  78  95 /  10  20   0  20
LFT  79  98  79  98 /  10  20   0  20
BPT  78  94  78  95 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ027>033-
     044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11