101
FXUS64 KLCH 141913
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
213 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A persistent summertime pattern remains in effect. The Gulf Coast
remains in an unstable pattern, with troughing aloft and high
pressure on either side. The trough is present from 250 mb down to
500 mb, while the high pressure is present at the surface and up
to 500 mb. Moisture profiles remain in the 75th to 90th percentile
with PWATs averaging 2 inches through the the start of next week.
This abundant moisture along with decent to high CAPE values will
keep pop-up showers and thunderstorms in our forecast each
afternoon. As with most summertime convection there is an outside
chance for damaging winds or localized flash flooding with each of
these storms. Overall PoP coverage will be in the 40-50% range
each afternoon.

Temperatures will be in the typical range for the summer, with
highs in the mid to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
This one-two punch of heat and humidity will drive our heat index
into the triple digits each afternoon. With maximum apparent
temperatures staying just below the heat advisory criteria of 108.
Still make sure to take heat precautions and stay hydrated! &&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The long term forecast is a bit shocking because...there is a
change to the forecast! At least temporarily. By the middle of
the week global models are showing the passage of a weak frontal
boundary. Strength wise this system will be on the weak side, even
for July, but will bring a wind shift that will push in a drier
airmass to the coast. Dewpoints will drop several degrees but
temperatures will remain close to climatological averages.

This front will also bring more convection as it stall out along
the coast. From Thursday to the weekend, there will be extensive
showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, summer will return and
this respite will only last a few days as southern flow will
return on Monday. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorm are developing across the coast. These will
push in this afternoon and create periods of lower vis at the I-10
corridor terminals through sunset and along with briefly gusty
winds. VFR conditions are anticipated tonight. Winds will be
light and VRB until the sea breeze pushes inland. The sea breeze
will veer winds south to southwest at 5 to 10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Winds remain light and onshore with calm seas (1 to 3 ft). These
condition will continue through the middle of next week. Each
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will from creating locally
hazardous conditions for mariner with gusty winds and higher seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  95  74  96 /  10  20   0  20
LCH  77  91  77  91 /  10  30   0  40
LFT  78  94  78  95 /  10  50   0  50
BPT  76  92  76  92 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05