829
FXUS64 KLCH 111718
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows weak pressure gradient across the area, with light
and variable winds across the area. Radar showing scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across the coastal waters. Area
dewpoints much higher this morning, with mid to upper 70s
areawide. 12Z LCH sounding shows plentiful moisture with PW H20 at
2.08". Afternoon heating, a weak shortwave aloft, and available
moisture will lead to a better coverage of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor this afternoon. Further
north of the U.S. 190 corridor, much lower chances of showers and
thunderstorms expected, with around 10-20%. Only minor changes
made to forecast, slightly lowering PoPs as NBM guidance has been too
high the last several days, but otherwise, on track with no other
major changes.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Calm winds have allowed for some patchy, light fog to develop
across the region over the last couple of hours where dewpoint
depressions have narrowed. Expect this fog to remain generally at or
above 4 SM visibility and should be quick to dissipate after
sunrise.

A weak, quasistationary boundary remains draped across the region
early this morning although it`s not as well delineated compared to
this time yesterday. This, combined with a broad upper level trof
extending from the Great Lakes to the gulf coast, will yield higher
than typical afternoon convective coverage. Guidance has been in
good agreement on a gradual lifting of this boundary through the day
allowing scattered afternoon convection to advance to around the Hwy
190 corridor with a sharp PoP gradient North of the boundary. A
surface gradient will be largely nonexistent over the next few days.
Interactions from colliding outflow boundaries will initialize
new storms and offer the potential for tropical funnel clouds.

By Friday, the boundary will have largely washed out entirely
allowing low level moisture to surge across central Louisiana.
Lingering effects of the departing upper low will maintain above
normal PoPs area wide for afternoon convection. With the demise of
the boundary and loss of upper level support, PoPS Saturday
afternoon will be exclusively diurnally driven and more in line with
mid summer afternoon coverage.

Isolated to scattered, landbreeze induced, nocturnal thunderstorms
will be a nightly occurrence through the weekend. Patchy, light
fog will remain possible each night where precipitation occurs and
skies clear.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Little change in thinking from yesterday morning regarding the long
term forecast. Ridging, albeit weak, is expected to prevail at the
surface and aloft. This will yield a typical summertime diurnal
seabreeze/nocturnal landbreeze circulation for areas near the coast,
with an otherwise light onshore flow to persist.
Moisture will remain adequate to support at least some scattered
mainly afternoon showers and storms each day, mainly across southern
LA, with more isolated activity further west across SE TX. With
PWATs progged to range from roughly 1.8 to 2.2 inches, locally heavy
rainfall cannot be ruled out in a few storms. Convection is expected
to taper off after sunset and re-form over the nearshore waters by
late night/early morning.

Daytime temperatures are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s
over the southern zones, and the middle to upper 90s across the
northern zones. Heat advisories will likely be needed, at least for
parts of the area, as maximum apparent temperatures could peak
between 108 and 112 degrees.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the region
due to a stationary boundary that is draped across southern
Louisiana. VCTS weather is expected across each of the TAF sites
with the exception of AEX. Winds will be light and variable except
for chaotic outflows from thunderstorms. CIG is scattered around
3000-6000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the weekend, with the greatest coverage typically
overnight into the morning each day. A light onshore flow will
prevail through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  94  74  95 /  10  40  10  40
LCH  76  90  76  92 /  20  60  10  50
LFT  77  93  77  94 /  20  60  10  50
BPT  76  91  76  92 /  30  60  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...14