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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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101 FXUS64 KLCH 150056 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 756 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Heat index values this afternoon at reliable observation sites are hovering around the 105 to 110 range, with the occasional higher numbers verifying the heat advisory. Only convection so far this afternoon has been near the sea breeze boundary which has not made much progress inland. Any thunderstorm activity that develops is expected to diminish around sunset. Thursday looks like a repeat with the upper level ridge in control. Hot and humid conditions will continue with max afternoon heat index readings in the 107 to 113 range, so another heat advisory will be in effect. Any shower or storm activity will occur during max heating in the mid to late afternoon and be near the sea breeze or any Atchafalaya Basin convergence zones that may develop. On Friday,the upper level ridge retrogrades a little to the west and this may bring about a better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over eastern portions and near the Atchafalaya Basin. Despite the increase prospect in convection, afternoon max heat index readings will likely be in the heat advisory criteria. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An upper level trough looks to move down from the northwest and into the weakness in the ridging aloft on Saturday. This is expected to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. However, the possible frontal boundary at the surface that would bring lower dew points and thus lower heat index readings, is now looking like it will stall north of the forecast area. Therefore, the possibility of a heat advisory will continue depending on how much convection can fire up. Rain chances will decrease again on Sunday into early next week as the upper level ridge expands into the forecast area again. Therefore, very hot and humid conditions also look to persist. Rua && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions expected overnight with a changeover to MVFR ceilings after 14Z Thursday. High pressure and relatively dry airmass over the area should keep the radar quiet. Only very isolated showers will be possible in afternoon hours. 11 && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Not too much looks to change for the marine forecast for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Weak surface ridging will be noted over the coastal waters as a front stalls to the north. Therefore, the light onshore flow and low seas will continue through the period. Although the upper level ridge will weaken some over the region on Friday and Saturday, shower and thunderstorm activity will be a minimum with just isolated to widely scattered noted over the coastal waters. Activity offshore will have a better chance at night into the early morning, the best chance for activity near shore in the afternoon and early evening. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 99 76 97 / 10 20 10 30 LCH 78 95 78 94 / 0 20 10 50 LFT 80 98 79 95 / 10 40 10 60 BPT 78 97 78 96 / 0 10 0 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11