666
FXUS64 KLCH 121729
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a low pressure trough
from the Great Lakes into the mid-MS Valley, with ridging over
the W Atlantic into the E Gulf and across the SW states. Between
these features the region is situated on the western periphery of
the ridge across FL, with a weakness/shear zone over SE TX into W
LA. Moisture remains plentiful with PWATs currently near 2 inches
per latest LAPS Layer Precip H2O and GOES TPW.

At the surface, the wind field remains fairly weak with a weak
and diffuse boundary lingering over the area. Very warm and muggy
conditions prevail with air temperatures in the middle to upper
70s and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, with no more than a
3 degree spread noted in obs.

KLCH radar shows some widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms developing over the nearshore waters and coastal
zones, and this trend will continue into the morning hours, with
convection spreading inland south of I-10 early today.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Today will be similar to yesterday as the weakness aloft will
provide enough support for convection to develop and expand in
coverage through the day. Whatever is left of the weak surface
boundary should provide enough focus for scattered to numerous
showers and storms, which will be augmented by the seabreeze as it
lifts northward across the area during the day. Increasing
instability thanks to daytime heating and abundant moisture in
place with PWATs between 1.8 and 2.2 inches will result in some
storms capable of producing heavy downpours. In addition,
forecast soundings should midlevel lapse rates between 6.5 and 7.0
degrees/KM across the northern zones, so while an organized
severe threat is not expected, the potential for a few storms to
produce brief sub-severe downburst wind gusts or some small hail
cannot be ruled out. With widespread cloud cover and fairly good
coverage of convection expected today, temperatures should stay
near or even a little below July normals, with highs reaching the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

Showers and storms should dissipate by sunset or shortly
thereafter as heating wanes and conditions stabilize. The weakness
aloft will migrate northwest as the ridge over the eastern Gulf
builds west. At the surface, high pressure will likewise expand
west across the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a prevailing onshore
expected to develop and persist through the weekend.

Despite ridging building over the region, moisture and
instability will stick around allowing for a daily chance for
showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Activity will be mainly
scattered, forced by the seabreeze and other mesoscale boundaries.
PWATs are progged to stay elevated around 2 inches so the
potential for heavy downpours will continue. General coverage is
expected to decrease and this will allow a gradual uptick in
temperatures each afternoon, with highs expected to reach the
middle to upper 90s by Sunday. Southerly winds will keep dewpoint
temperatures in the lower to middle 70s and this will push
apparent temps upward to between 103 and 110 degrees, and the
possibility for heat advisories will be monitored.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The long range is dominated by a broad, slack ridging across much of
the Southern CONUS. Locally, forecast soundings and mid-level
tropospheric analysis indicates the ridging will exhibit little
subsidence throughout the remainder of the upcoming work week. Thus,
our daily pop up to periodic scattered thundershowers will continue
to persist through the mid week. Highs will remain a little more
climatological norms along the coast while remaining roughly 3 to 5
above normal trending into the mid 90s for further interior SETX
and SWLA locations under predominantly southerly flow.

Meanwhile upstream, an upper level shortwave will keep positive tilt
while shifting across the Great Lakes and New England through
Thursday building dry high pressure across the Midwest. Further
south, a stationary boundary will stall near the ARKLATEX area which
will provide some weak focus for more numerous shower / storms.
These signals remain well to the north, however, given a relatively
moist column for summer season, further opportunities for showers /
convection remain higher near coastal locations.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions will be broken apart by occasional showers and
thunderstorms. During storms lower VIS/CIG will drop conditions
into the MVFR to IFR levels. Winds will be light and variable
through the night.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Light winds and low seas should prevail for the next several days
and no headlines are anticipated for the coastal waters. Variable
winds today will trend more onshore over the weekend and into next
week as surface high pressure expands across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers and storms will be possible into early
next week, with the best coverage from late night into the
morning hours.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  94  74 /  30  10  50  10
LCH  88  76  91  76 /  80  10  70   0
LFT  91  77  93  78 /  70  10  60   0
BPT  90  76  91  76 /  80  20  70   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14