644
FXUS64 KLCH 150440
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1140 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

No significant updates tonight as afternoon convection has
dissipated and today`s Heat Advisory has expired. Overall, the
forecast is on track with very warm and muggy conditions tonight
giving way to hot and humid conditions on Thursday. There are some
storms across SE LA that persist despite loss of daytime heat, and
this activity has been propagating southwest. If they hold
together, they could move into our far southeast zones. However, CAM
guidance suggests these storms should be diminishing over the
next hour or so, before reaching our CWA, so will continue to
monitor.

Otherwise, text products have been updated to remove today`s Heat
Advisory headline, but otherwise the forecast is in good shape.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Heat index values this afternoon at reliable observation sites are
hovering around the 105 to 110 range, with the occasional higher
numbers verifying the heat advisory. Only convection so far this
afternoon has been near the sea breeze boundary which has not
made much progress inland. Any thunderstorm activity that
develops is expected to diminish around sunset.

Thursday looks like a repeat with the upper level ridge in
control. Hot and humid conditions will continue with max afternoon
heat index readings in the 107 to 113 range, so another heat
advisory will be in effect. Any shower or storm activity will
occur during max heating in the mid to late afternoon and be near
the sea breeze or any Atchafalaya Basin convergence zones that may
develop.

On Friday,the upper level ridge retrogrades a little to the west
and this may bring about a better chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, especially over eastern portions and near the
Atchafalaya Basin. Despite the increase prospect in convection,
afternoon max heat index readings will likely be in the heat
advisory criteria.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An upper level trough looks to move down from the northwest and
into the weakness in the ridging aloft on Saturday. This is
expected to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. However, the possible frontal boundary at the
surface that would bring lower dew points and thus lower heat
index readings, is now looking like it will stall north of the
forecast area. Therefore, the possibility of a heat advisory will
continue depending on how much convection can fire up.

Rain chances will decrease again on Sunday into early next week as
the upper level ridge expands into the forecast area again.
Therefore, very hot and humid conditions also look to persist.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Expecting quiet, VFR conditions with nearly calm winds tonight.
After 14Z or 15Z Thursday, a disturbance moves across the north
central US, causing high pressure to relax slightly. This will
allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and
move across the area. Since high pressure will be shunted eastward
with this disturbance, the bulk of activity should be contained to
southeast and south central Louisiana (LFT, ARA) in the late
afternoon to early evening. With these storms expect some to be
strong, severe and rather intense in nature: frequent lightning,
heavy downpours, very gusty winds and some small hail.

MVFR ceilings and lowered VIS in response to convective
development will lift with the end of daytime heating. Expect
conditions to greatly improve after 01Z on the 16th.

11/Calhoun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  99  76  97 /  10  20  10  30
LCH  78  95  78  94 /   0  20  10  50
LFT  80  98  79  95 /  10  40  10  60
BPT  78  97  78  96 /   0  10   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11