535
FXUS64 KLCH 200807
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A weak frontal boundary is stalled roughly from around Sabine
Lake to Opelousas this morning. Showers and storms are ongoing
south of the boundary, but most numerous over the coastal waters
where moisture is higher. PWATs are running around 2" along the
coast while the lakes region through Cen LA is around 1.5" or
less. Aloft a ridge is along the southeast US coast and another
over the western U.S. Between these features a trough is across
the Mississippi Valley to the northern gulf coast.

Through this morning, convection is expected to continue along
the coast with some inland development anticipated through sunrise
and mid morning. Hi-res guidance indicates the focus will shift
more inland this afternoon with daytime heating and the sea breeze,
however convection is expected to be limited farther north into
the lakes and Cen LA due to limited moisture. There is a marginal
risk of excessive rain over most of the area today, however the
higher chance will likely remain over deep SE TX and Acadiana.

Sunday and Monday the frontal boundary will meander across the
region while the weakness aloft remains in place. Moisture will
also increase area wide from today into Sunday and more so into
early next week. Wet weather is expected with a marginal risk of
excessive rain each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The wet and stormy pattern will continue through the extended as
the upper disturbance remains stuck in place. A marginal to slight
risk of excessive rain is expected each day due to slow storm
motion, possibility of heavy rain, and antecedent conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Convection continues in the Atchafalaya basin with convection
moving offshore. CAMs keep convection overnight along the coast.
In the morning there will be PROB30 for coastal terminals.
Overnight winds will be light and variable with a minimal fog
risk except for AEX where fog will be a concern around sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Not expecting the need for any headlines on the CWF over the next
several days. Outside of convection winds will remain light and at
times variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  72  90  71 /  20  10  60  30
LCH  89  75  88  75 /  60  50  90  60
LFT  90  76  88  76 /  70  50 100  50
BPT  91  75  90  75 /  60  40  90  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05