657
FXUS64 KLCH 201926
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
226 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A weak frontal boundary is stalled roughly from around Sabine
Lake to Opelousas this morning. Showers and storms are ongoing
south of the boundary, but most numerous over the coastal waters
where moisture is higher. PWATs are running around 2" along the
coast while the lakes region through Cen LA is around 1.5" or
less. Aloft a ridge is along the southeast US coast and another
over the western U.S. Between these features a trough is across
the Mississippi Valley to the northern gulf coast.

Through this morning, convection is expected to continue along
the coast with some inland development anticipated through sunrise
and mid morning. Hi-res guidance indicates the focus will shift
more inland this afternoon with daytime heating and the sea breeze,
however convection is expected to be limited farther north into
the lakes and Cen LA due to limited moisture. There is a marginal
risk of excessive rain over most of the area today, however the
higher chance will likely remain over deep SE TX and Acadiana.

Sunday and Monday the frontal boundary will meander across the
region while the weakness aloft remains in place. Moisture will
also increase area wide from today into Sunday and more so into
early next week. Wet weather is expected with a marginal risk of
excessive rain each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The wet and stormy pattern will continue through the extended as
the upper disturbance remains stuck in place. A marginal to slight
risk of excessive rain is expected each day due to slow storm
motion, possibility of heavy rain, and antecedent conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A dry airmass has moved down into the region, pushing most to all
convection offshore. At terminals, winds are variable with broken
to scattered ceilings 2500 to 4500 feet. Expect these conditions
to continue for the next several hours.

Return flow develops tonight with the return of high pressure over
the northeast Gulf. With this renewed push of moisture, expect
shower and thunderstorms to develop over coastal waters before
spreading inland through the morning hours.

11/Calhoun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  89  71  87 /  20  70  40  90
LCH  75  88  75  87 /  60  80  70 100
LFT  76  89  76  88 /  60  90  60 100
BPT  75  89  75  88 /  50  80  60  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11