560
FXUS64 KLCH 170451
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1151 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Another warm and humid night ongoing across the region with
dewpoints ranging from 75-79. Lows will fall within this range
only a few degrees from present observations. Better PoPs look on
tap Wednesday and will likely begin somewhat earlier in the day as
moisture pools further (if that`s possible) ahead of a weak
frontal boundary approaching from the Northwest. The biggest
question continues to revolve around the need for a heat advisory
Wednesday afternoon. While apparent temperature guidance is near
or slightly above the threshold in a few more locations due to the
higher dewpoints, should the more widespread convection verify as
expected, only the areas that remain largely precip and cloud
free would be at risk of remaining above criteria for any
significant length of time. This appears most likely across
central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas where there is
consensus on lower PoPs. Will continue to punt the decision
pending the latest guidance. No changes were made to the inherited
forecast this evening.

Jones

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A subtropical ridge remains stretched from the Atlantic across the
northern gulf coast this afternoon with a light south to southwest
flow in place. This is keeping dewpoints well into the 70s. Aloft
the shear axis that has been parked over East TX for the past few
days has pinched off into an upper low however a drier airmass has
wrapped around the low. This drier airmass is serving to suppress
convection over SE TX and west and central LA. Scattered
convection remains ongoing across Lower Acadiana. Temperatures
have risen into the low to mid 90s at most locations away from
convection with only KBPT having hit an apparent temp of 108 as of
2:30.

Additional showers and storms may develop farther west and north from
the current area, however convection is expected to decrease
around sunset.

Wednesday an upper low that is currently nearing Lake Superior
will drop southeast then east into the Saint Lawrence Valley. The
associated upper trough will dig into the eastern sections of the
CONUS and send a cold front south. As the front nears the
northern gulf coast, moisture will pool ahead of the front. This
may increase dewpoints another degree or two into Wednesday
afternoon. Apparent temperatures may finally push over the 108F
threshold for more locations during the afternoon and not just the
spotty areas of the past few days. The only caveat is at which
time will convection get going and therefore cooling the area back
down. At this time confidence is not great regarding issuing a
heat adv and will let the mid shift look over timing of
convection.

This front will then stall over the region Thursday into the
extended. A stormy/wet pattern is anticipated.

05/Tingler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A stalled front will be the main driver of the long term forecast.
With the front stalling on Friday and effecting our weather through
the weekend, before fading away over  the weekend.

Our air mass will be moist and unstable as the front acts as a focal
point for convection. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected, with PoPs in the 80% range. Aloft, weak troughing will
help to enhance convection, leading to stronger thunderstorms and
heavy rain. Forecast soundings show high PWATs in the 75th to 90th
percentile. Storm motion also looks to be slow, below 10 knots. With
this in mind, flash flooding will be a concern, with the WPC placing
the area under a Marginal Risk (1/5) through the weekend.

Going into the start of next week, the heavy rain threat will
continue with widespread convection and cloud cover. Temperature-
wise the rain will keep our highs in the low 90s to high 80s.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

No significant change in thinking from the previous discussion. A
quiet period with VFR conditions will continue for the rest of
the night and into early tomorrow. Mid to late tomorrow, we will
see isolated to scattered showers mainly near the southern
terminals, with an increase in activity and coverage throughout
the rest of the day. Later in the evening, this activity will
taper out.

Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A light onshore flow is expected into early Thursday. A weak cold
front is expected to stall along the coast Thursday causing
variable winds into the weekend. Convection will also increase
across the coastal waters with the frontal boundary stalled in the
vicinity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  96  74  92 /  10  30  20  80
LCH  78  91  78  91 /  20  70  20  90
LFT  79  94  78  93 /  20  80  20  90
BPT  78  92  76  92 /  10  60  20  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...87