890
FXUS64 KLCH 201533
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A warm start to the day, there`s mostly clear skies and a quiet
radar to be found. Expect much of this trend to continue within a
dry airmass seen over the region (per the 12Z RAOB). Morning grids
package is in good shape and no updates were made.

11

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A weak frontal boundary is stalled roughly from around Sabine
Lake to Opelousas this morning. Showers and storms are ongoing
south of the boundary, but most numerous over the coastal waters
where moisture is higher. PWATs are running around 2" along the
coast while the lakes region through Cen LA is around 1.5" or
less. Aloft a ridge is along the southeast US coast and another
over the western U.S. Between these features a trough is across
the Mississippi Valley to the northern gulf coast.

Through this morning, convection is expected to continue along
the coast with some inland development anticipated through sunrise
and mid morning. Hi-res guidance indicates the focus will shift
more inland this afternoon with daytime heating and the sea breeze,
however convection is expected to be limited farther north into
the lakes and Cen LA due to limited moisture. There is a marginal
risk of excessive rain over most of the area today, however the
higher chance will likely remain over deep SE TX and Acadiana.

Sunday and Monday the frontal boundary will meander across the
region while the weakness aloft remains in place. Moisture will
also increase area wide from today into Sunday and more so into
early next week. Wet weather is expected with a marginal risk of
excessive rain each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The wet and stormy pattern will continue through the extended as
the upper disturbance remains stuck in place. A marginal to slight
risk of excessive rain is expected each day due to slow storm
motion, possibility of heavy rain, and antecedent conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Showers and storms are moving inland along the coast.
Thunderstorms will be possible through the period across the I-10
corridor terminals. Lesser chances for rain will be found at KAEX
until tomorrow. Lower vis and ceilings will be possible in
convection. Outside of storms winds will be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  72  90  71 /  20  10  60  30
LCH  89  75  88  75 /  60  50  90  60
LFT  90  76  88  76 /  70  50 100  50
BPT  91  75  90  75 /  60  40  90  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05