764
FXUS64 KLCH 182050
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
350 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal
boundary just to our north while the Bermuda high pressure ridge
continue to cover the nrn Gulf/forecast area. Water vapor imagery
shows a trof axis extending from the Great Lakes swwd to the wrn
Gulf region. Satellite/88D imagery show an MCV spinning over the
Piney Woods of ern TX. Meanwhile, local radars show the bulk of
this morning`s convection has moved east of the Atchafalaya along
a resultant outflow boundary...with additional spotty light
showers noted over our nwrn zones closer to the aforementioned
vort.

As stated in the aviation section below, CAM guidance indicates a
quiet rest of the afternoon although spotty light showers remain
possible in the soupy environment. However CAM guidance is
depicting some late night redevelopment via the nearby MCV,
initially starting over the nrn zones, although typical late night
maritime activity is expected to once again fire up near the
coast/spreading inland.

The combination of the lingering trof axis, the meandering sfc
boundary and persistent very deep moisture will maintain elevated
rain chances (maybe not so high during the evening/early overnight
hours) through the short term portion of the forecast period.
Forecast soundings indicate mean RH values around 70 percent and
PWAT values generally between 1.9 and 2.1 inches into Saturday
night (around the 90th percentile per SPC raob climo). WPC is
maintaining the previous highlights of marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for most of the forecast area each day through
Sunday.

With the widespread cloud cover/precip, heat index values are not
expected to meet advisory criteria at any point during the short
term.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Little change in thinking for the long term period as a very wet and
active weather pattern is still in store. Low pressure is set to
move down into the lower Plains states while surface high pressure
ridge spreads over the northeast Gulf. Both of these features will
remain in these positions from Sunday to the end of the work week,
funneling moisture into southeast Texas and Louisiana. Expect a
period of daily showers and thunderstorms over the entire period.

The concern for area flash flooding will only increase each day as
rainfall totals build from the short and into the longterm. All
areas are included in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) of Excessive
Rainfall for at least Sunday and Monday. Elevated PoPs and an
airmass supporting efficient rain will be in place through Thursday
so one can expect the potential for flash/riverine flooding to
continue beyond Monday.

Widespread rain-cooled air and cloud cover will keep temperatures in
check for Sunday and coming work week. High temps should only top
out in the upper 80s to around 90 F each day. Elevated dewpoints,
however, will keep the overnight hours feeling very warm and muggy
in the low to mid 70s.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Local 88Ds show the convection which has been moving ewd across
the forecast area is about to cross the Atchafalaya with thunder
still being reported at the Acadiana terminals...will hold onto
tempo TSRA there for an hour or two to account. Otherwise, CAM
guidance indicates a quiet afternoon although have reinserted
PROB30s to account for possible redevelopment with heating as
satellite/88D imagery does show a MCV just to our northwest. CAM
guidance is also depicting late night redevelopment via the
MCV...PROB30s and VCs are being used all sites to handle the out
hours of the TAF period for this. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail outside of convection.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Not expecting the need for any headlines on the CWF over the next
several days.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  87  71  88 /  70  70  30  60
LCH  74  88  74  89 /  70  70  50  70
LFT  75  89  76  90 /  70  90  60  80
BPT  74  91  74  90 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...25