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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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031 FXUS64 KLCH 141733 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Conditions have been mostly quiet early this morning, although a few isolated showers and storms have started developing near the SE TX and SW LA coast. Otherwise, very warm and muggy conditions prevail as is typical of mid-July nights along the Gulf coast. Temperatures this morning are mostly in the middle to upper 70s, with low to mid 80s along the coast. Dewpoints were near or just a few degrees lower than air temps, with relative humidity values above 85 percent. A weak pressure gradient is in place as high pressure ridges along the northern Gulf, and this is resulting in calm to very light winds. Recent WV imagery and UA analysis shows a narrow ribbon of moisture streaming across the southeastern half of TX into the lower MS Valley, within a weak shear axis aloft between high pressure centered over the Four Corners and ridging from the western Atlantic into the E Gulf. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The weakness aloft will move little today, and its proximity to the area will support another day of mainly scattered convection across the region. With high pressure noted from the surface to roughly 700 MB, the main low level focus for convection will be sea and bay breezes along with any residual boundaries from showers and storms. Moisture and instability remain adequate for storms to produce heavy downpours along with brief gusty winds. Additionally, light and variable wind profiles will again support the potential for short-lived tropical funnels. Convection should wind down around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures today will be dependent on convective distribution and timing, but highs should generally remain close to mid-July normals in the lower to middle 90s. Light winds will trend more southerly into the afternoon and this will maintain an influx of moist air, with dewpoints expected to stay in the middle to upper 70s through the day. The combination of these elevated dewpoints and very warm temperatures will again yield apparent temperatures between 100 and 108 degrees. At this time, max apparent temps look to stay just below advisory criteria, or at best may reach criteria very briefly in a few isolated spots. Thus, no Heat Advisory has been issued for today. For Monday and Tuesday, minimal changes are expected in the pattern aloft. Various impulses are progged to meander within the shear zone, and the operational NAM continues to suggest the possibility of a weak cutoff low evolving within this scenario over NE TX/N LA while other guidance members just keep a weak trough in place. Meanwhile, slightly drier midlevel air will spread into the region and this will ultimately help to limit overall convective coverage somewhat each afternoon, with the highest PoPs (40%-50%) confined to the Acadiana region. With convective coverage forecast to decrease on Monday and Tuesday, daytime temps are expected to nudge upward slightly, with highs reaching the middle to upper 90s across portions of central LA. Daytime mixing should bring the aforementioned slightly drier air to the surface, helping to lower dewpoints a few degrees during the day and potentially mitigating the need for a Heat Advisory. That said, an Advisory may be needed for the usual more humid locations along the Atchafalaya Basin, and this will be addressed in future forecast packages. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Signals amongst the latest guidance suites continue to indicate increased chances for precipitation across SETX and SWLA starting during the upcoming mid week trending into the following weekend. A very broad upper level trough extending over the Ozarks will consolidate over the ARKLATEX region by Wednesday and gradually deepen through Friday before merging with an upstream trough which amplifies toward the Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Locally, temperatures are still projected to remain seasonably warm across SETX and SWLA with heat indices exceeding 100F while actual diurnal temperatures climb into low to mid 90s for highs for many locations through Thursday. With primarily southerly onshore flow, weak perturbations aloft are liable to set off isolated to scattered showers/storms along the southern / coastal counties and parishes. Further north an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region shifts over eastern Canada with the SWrn portions of the troughing extending down to the Ozarks. Meanwhile, our local upper level low shifts SE of the Mississippi Delta while continuing to deepen. Thus a combination of a frontal boundary developing southward over the mid-south associated with the northern stream trough and the now coastal upper level low provide very favorable conditions to generate scattered showers / storms across the area continuing through Thursday night. Moving into Friday residual troughing left over the plains from the exiting northern stream trough will begin to deepen further south over Mississippi Valley. Model guidance still contains some variance among timing and strength of the front, however, taking a national blended approach illustrates some higher confidence the boundary will shift toward the Gulf Coast by Friday afternoon. Hereafter, the pattern becomes a little more unsettled with developing rounds of precipitation across the area while the front slows along the Gulf Coast. To the north, behind the front, modest high pressure rests over the Midwest creating a notable boundary between relatively dry / cool continental air in that region and warm / humid subtropical air to the south over the Gulf Coast. With the increasing chances of precipitation and the approaching frontal boundary, temperatures are forecast to trend slightly cooler to the upper 80s for many locations over SETX and SWLA beginning Friday lasting into the weekend. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Scattered thunderstorm are developing across the coast. These will push in this afternoon and create periods of lower vis at the I-10 corridor terminals through sunset and along with briefly gusty winds. VFR conditions are anticipated tonight. Winds will be light and VRB until the sea breeze pushes inland. The sea breeze will veer winds south to southwest at 5 to 10kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Surface high pressure ridging along the northern Gulf coast will keep a light and variable to onshore flow and low seas over the coastal waters for the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible, mainly from late night into early afternoon. Locally higher waves/winds may occur with any stronger storms. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 95 74 96 / 10 20 0 20 LCH 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 0 40 LFT 78 94 78 95 / 10 50 0 50 BPT 76 92 76 92 / 10 30 0 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05