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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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663 FXUS64 KLCH 202050 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The morning has been quiet due to the entrainment of dry air behind a surface boundary which is now sitting over the coastline. A few very elevated showers (iso storms) have developed inland, marking the start of afternoon convection. Any activity should remain fairly isolated with only heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning being the driving concerns with storms. High pressure starts to ridge across the northeast Gulf of Mexico overnight as weakness develops aloft. These two features will send northward the boundary late tonight into the morning, bringing about the start of many rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Deep tropical moisture will cause convection to be rather efficient and within the several rounds of rain, at least urbanized flash flooding will be possible. Weak flow means storms could park over one location and rain out, resulting in multiple inch totals in a short period. Rain-cooled air and cloud cover will keep temperatures in check Sunday with highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday should see more widespread rainfall due to a short wave pulse moving through weakness aloft; temps should hover in the upper 80s. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The long term will continue the same wet pattern that started in the short term as the upper disturbance stalls out. We will start off with this disturbance over the Central CONUS, a ridge centered over the Desert SW, and an elongated ridge centered over the Atlantic with it extending clear west into the western GoM. Light southerly flow will continue over the period, setting up a tap of moist tropical air. PWATs will remain in or near the 2 inch range with dewpoints in the 70s. Over the entire course of the long term there will be a minimal eastward shift in the aforementioned systems. By next weekend the upper trough will be centered east of the Great Lakes while the Desert SW ridge spreads more into the plains. This will eventually lead to lower PoPs near the end of the term. Daily rain and cloud cover will keep our temperatures below normal for most of the period until near the weekend as the western ridge begins to build west. We will see a gradual increase in temperatures from there. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A dry airmass has moved down into the region, pushing most to all convection offshore. At terminals, winds are variable with broken to scattered ceilings 2500 to 4500 feet. Expect these conditions to continue for the next several hours. Return flow develops tonight with the return of high pressure over the northeast Gulf. With this renewed push of moisture, expect shower and thunderstorms to develop over coastal waters before spreading inland through the morning hours. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A stalling surface frontal boundary is expected to meander around the region through the weekend, allowing for light and variable winds over the next few days. Convection will also increase across the coastal waters with the boundary in the vicinity. Into next week, surface high ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico that will provide light southerly winds and low seas. However, high chances for daily showers and thunderstorms will persist with weakness present aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 89 71 87 / 20 70 40 90 LCH 75 88 75 87 / 60 80 70 100 LFT 76 89 76 88 / 60 90 60 100 BPT 75 89 75 88 / 50 80 60 90 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...11