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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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715 FXUS64 KLCH 190450 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Isolated showers remain on the radar tonight with this light activity expected to prevail into the early morning hours before coverage increases again. No significant changes made to the inherited grids outside of PoPs. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal boundary just to our north while the Bermuda high pressure ridge continue to cover the nrn Gulf/forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows a trof axis extending from the Great Lakes swwd to the wrn Gulf region. Satellite/88D imagery show an MCV spinning over the Piney Woods of ern TX. Meanwhile, local radars show the bulk of this morning`s convection has moved east of the Atchafalaya along a resultant outflow boundary...with additional spotty light showers noted over our nwrn zones closer to the aforementioned vort. As stated in the aviation section below, CAM guidance indicates a quiet rest of the afternoon although spotty light showers remain possible in the soupy environment. However CAM guidance is depicting some late night redevelopment via the nearby MCV, initially starting over the nrn zones, although typical late night maritime activity is expected to once again fire up near the coast/spreading inland. The combination of the lingering trof axis, the meandering sfc boundary and persistent very deep moisture will maintain elevated rain chances (maybe not so high during the evening/early overnight hours) through the short term portion of the forecast period. Forecast soundings indicate mean RH values around 70 percent and PWAT values generally between 1.9 and 2.1 inches into Saturday night (around the 90th percentile per SPC raob climo). WPC is maintaining the previous highlights of marginal risk for excessive rainfall for most of the forecast area each day through Sunday. With the widespread cloud cover/precip, heat index values are not expected to meet advisory criteria at any point during the short term. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Little change in thinking for the long term period as a very wet and active weather pattern is still in store. Low pressure is set to move down into the lower Plains states while surface high pressure ridge spreads over the northeast Gulf. Both of these features will remain in these positions from Sunday to the end of the work week, funneling moisture into southeast Texas and Louisiana. Expect a period of daily showers and thunderstorms over the entire period. The concern for area flash flooding will only increase each day as rainfall totals build from the short and into the longterm. All areas are included in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for at least Sunday and Monday. Elevated PoPs and an airmass supporting efficient rain will be in place through Thursday so one can expect the potential for flash/riverine flooding to continue beyond Monday. Widespread rain-cooled air and cloud cover will keep temperatures in check for Sunday and coming work week. High temps should only top out in the upper 80s to around 90 F each day. Elevated dewpoints, however, will keep the overnight hours feeling very warm and muggy in the low to mid 70s. 11 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Little change from previous TAF thinking with a few scattered SHRA already developing across parts of the area late this evening per KLCH radar. VFR conditions are noted across the area with SCT-BKN mid/high clouds over the region. Convection expected to persist tonight across parts of central LA, and kept TEMPO group in place for AEX. Otherwise, expect a few SHRA/TSRA approaching the southern terminals between 08-10Z as nearshore convection spreads inland. During the day, scattered to possibly numerous SHRA/TSRA will again be possible across the area, and PROB30 groups have been inserted to account for the increased probabilities while specific timing/coverage near terminals remains rather low confidence. VFR conditions and light variable winds should prevail outside of any convection. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Not expecting the need for any headlines on the CWF over the next several days. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 86 71 88 / 60 80 30 60 LCH 74 89 74 89 / 70 60 50 70 LFT 75 89 76 90 / 50 80 60 80 BPT 74 91 74 90 / 50 70 50 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...24