786
FXUS64 KLCH 071027
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
527 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)

Overall slightly cooler temperatures on tap this morning in the mid
to upper 70s. We still have light showers in the area, with another
band of stronger showers and storms approaching our outer coastal
waters. PWATs over most of the period are well over the 90th
percentile, with some above their daily max.

The latest NHC track has again shifted to the right from the
previous track, with landfall expected near the Matagorda Bay. As of
5AM, Beryl is a tropical storm with sustained winds near 60 MPH. It
is expected to restrengthen into to a category 1 hurricane today.
It is currently located roughly 200 miles east of the Tx/ MX
border, where it is moving NW at about 12 MPH.

Concerning our area, most of the impacts will be across SETX and
West Central to SWLA. Flooding, both coastal flooding and flash
flooding, remain the prominent concern. Both today and tomorrow we
have a Slight to Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Please check
our webpage or WPC for exact locations.

The only new addition from the previous gridded forecast is a
Tropical Storm Watch along the Texas coast from High Island to
Sabine Pass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

By Tuesday morning, the remnants of Beryl will be lifting northeast
into AR. Any wind and surge impacts from the storm should be
subsiding, but lingering rainbands trailing south to southwest will
keep PoPs elevated across at least parts of the area. Global models
suggest that most of the rain could be across southern and southeast
LA, and the latest WPC Day 3 excessive rain outlook (Tuesday) paints
a MRGL risk across this area. Forecast rainfall amounts are not too
extreme so the MRGL seems adequate at this time. However, as can be
the case with decaying tropical systems lifting inland, this
training effect can lead to a narrow elongated swath of high
rainfall totals, and thus the potential for flooding is certainly
non-zero and will depend on where these bands set up. This will
continue to be monitored over the next few days.

A weak trough or shear zone leftover from the exiting system will
persist over the region for a few days and, combined with elevated
PWATs, will maintain decent rain chances across the southern half of
the area and over the coastal waters through late in the week.
Convective coverage is expected to follow a diurnal trend,
developing over the nearshore zones by late night/early morning,
then spreading inland and peaking over inland areas with daytime
heat.

Daytime temperatures should be kept in check Tuesday and Wednesday
thanks to more widespread cloud cover and showers, with highs around
90 each day. A gradual uptick in daytime temps is expected through
the latter half of the week, especially over the northern zones as
convective coverage across these areas is expected to become more
scattered.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A few showers and storms will be possible at KLCH and KBPT through
the early morning hours with additional convection expected
through Sunday at all terminals. While most of the period is
anticipated to be VFR periods of lower ceilings and vis will be
possible in and near storms. Winds will become SE Sunday and
increase later in the period, especially at KBPT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 511 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The main concern for the Marine zones remains Tropical Storm
Beryl. A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for the western coastal
waters. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to move northwest,
towards the south central Texas coast. Locally, conditions will
quickly deteriorate, with seas and winds rapidly building today.
Winds will be above 20 knots, with gusts approaching 30 knots.
The seas will rapidly build as Beryl approaches, with maximum wave
heights of 11 feet in the western waters. In the far eastern
waters, wave heights will be topping out around 8 feet. These
conditions will begin to settle starting monday into Tuesday,
however near normal conditions are not expected until Thursday.
Near thunderstorms, winds and waves will be higher with shorter
periods. During this time, heavy showers and thunderstorms will
also be a concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  92  74 /  40  30  70  50
LCH  91  78  88  77 /  70  40  90  70
LFT  93  80  93  79 /  60  40  80  60
BPT  91  80  87  76 /  80  60  90  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
     LAZ073-074.

TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ615.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ450-470.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05