Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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283 FXUS64 KLCH 071712 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Overall slightly cooler temperatures on tap this morning in the mid to upper 70s. We still have light showers in the area, with another band of stronger showers and storms approaching our outer coastal waters. PWATs over most of the period are well over the 90th percentile, with some above their daily max. The latest NHC track has again shifted to the right from the previous track, with landfall expected near the Matagorda Bay. As of 5AM, Beryl is a tropical storm with sustained winds near 60 MPH. It is expected to restrengthen into to a category 1 hurricane today. It is currently located roughly 200 miles east of the Tx/ MX border, where it is moving NW at about 12 MPH. Concerning our area, most of the impacts will be across SETX and West Central to SWLA. Flooding, both coastal flooding and flash flooding, remain the prominent concern. Both today and tomorrow we have a Slight to Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Please check our webpage or WPC for exact locations. The only new addition from the previous gridded forecast is a Tropical Storm Watch along the Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) By Tuesday morning, the remnants of Beryl will be lifting northeast into AR. Any wind and surge impacts from the storm should be subsiding, but lingering rainbands trailing south to southwest will keep PoPs elevated across at least parts of the area. Global models suggest that most of the rain could be across southern and southeast LA, and the latest WPC Day 3 excessive rain outlook (Tuesday) paints a MRGL risk across this area. Forecast rainfall amounts are not too extreme so the MRGL seems adequate at this time. However, as can be the case with decaying tropical systems lifting inland, this training effect can lead to a narrow elongated swath of high rainfall totals, and thus the potential for flooding is certainly non-zero and will depend on where these bands set up. This will continue to be monitored over the next few days. A weak trough or shear zone leftover from the exiting system will persist over the region for a few days and, combined with elevated PWATs, will maintain decent rain chances across the southern half of the area and over the coastal waters through late in the week. Convective coverage is expected to follow a diurnal trend, developing over the nearshore zones by late night/early morning, then spreading inland and peaking over inland areas with daytime heat. Daytime temperatures should be kept in check Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to more widespread cloud cover and showers, with highs around 90 each day. A gradual uptick in daytime temps is expected through the latter half of the week, especially over the northern zones as convective coverage across these areas is expected to become more scattered. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Rain bands from Beryl will continue to move across the region through the period. This will cause periods of lower vis and ceilings with higher wind gusts. Rain may become more widespread at the end of the period for KLCH and KBPT. Winds will be mostly east to southeast and highest at KBPT. && .MARINE... Issued at 511 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The main concern for the Marine zones remains Tropical Storm Beryl. A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for the western coastal waters. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to move northwest, towards the south central Texas coast. Locally, conditions will quickly deteriorate, with seas and winds rapidly building today. Winds will be above 20 knots, with gusts approaching 30 knots. The seas will rapidly build as Beryl approaches, with maximum wave heights of 11 feet in the western waters. In the far eastern waters, wave heights will be topping out around 8 feet. These conditions will begin to settle starting monday into Tuesday, however near normal conditions are not expected until Thursday. Near thunderstorms, winds and waves will be higher with shorter periods. During this time, heavy showers and thunderstorms will also be a concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 92 74 90 / 30 70 50 60 LCH 78 88 77 89 / 40 90 70 70 LFT 80 93 79 92 / 40 80 60 80 BPT 80 87 76 92 / 60 90 70 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ073-074. TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ615. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-452- 455-472-475. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ450-470. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...05