Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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547 FXUS64 KLCH 031516 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1016 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A mesoscale boundary along the northern Gulf Coast has induced showers and thunderstorms across mainly the southern parts of the CWA over the last few hours. Therefore, the main grid update this morning was to tweak hourly POPs to account for this activity through the next few hours. Still looks like we`ll see an increase in activity by the afternoon hours as well, with most of this activity expected to remain across roughly the southern half of the region. Otherwise, the forecast is on track this morning. 17 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers have started to develop over coastal waters which will start moving inland in the coming hours. These nocturnal showers preceded a weak easterly wave which is expected to move onshore in eastern Louisiana today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should spread inland and across much of the area today. Deep tropical-like moisture will accompany convection allowing for efficient warm rainfall processes to take place and thus very heavy downpours. With some stronger storms, gusty winds will be possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Weakness aloft takes place Thursday allowing for a return of typical diurnal convection. Friday, expect afternoon showers and storms, but with an added boundary moving down towards the region from the north. This feature may drive rain chances to continue into the overnight hours. Temperatures today, Thursday and Friday should generally be held in check by area rainfall. Highs along the coast will hover in the low 90s each day while those further inland warm into the mid to upper 90s. Although daytime temps won`t be as warm as they have been, afternoon Heat Indices will make a run into the low 100s to around 109F today (especially in northern zones and along the Atchafalaya Basin.) Thus, a Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas today. Another Heat Advisory is in place for the Holiday Thursday. This Advisory spans from inland Southeast Texas into central Louisiana. Elsewhere, rainfall should keep Heat Indices from reaching criteria. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The long term begins Saturday with the area under the influence of troffing over the center of the country while at the sfc, high pressure is forecast to remain centered over the nern Gulf, maintaining a srly low-level flow across the region. In addition, a weak sfc front is progged to be stalling to our north across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions. The combo of the limited capping, weak influence of the sfc boundary and good Gulf moisture (mean RH values again have increase to exceeding 70 percent and PWAT values now peak at 2.3 inches) is expected to lead to widespread showers/storms during the daytime. Blended guidance is advertising highest POPs once again over our sern zones, although the highest QPFs are being carried across the nrn 1/2 of the area...and with this in mind, WPC has highlighted the nrn zones in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Sunday looks largely like a repeat, although with the frontal boundary likely to lift back nwd somewhat, rain chances drop back a tick to account. The latest forecast track for TC Beryl from NHC calls for the system to make landfall along the far nrn Mexican coast not too far south of KBRO late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Following this, much of the guidance takes the core of the system nnwwd further into TX. With a deep serly flow now progged to set up over the wrn Gulf and into the Gulf West region, rain chances over the forecast area begin increasing again to start the new work week. This increasingly wet trends continues into the Tuesday as what`s left of the system begins to meander around to our west while a 2ry surge of moisture is progged to encroach the region. It is important to note that confidence remains somewhat low in the eventual path of Beryl and that changes to the forecast track over the coming days are likely...stay tuned. The good news in the long term is that with all the cloud cover/rainfall being forecast, temperatures are not looking to run as warm as during the days prior. Forecast highs generally top out in the lower 90s each day. Peak heat index values generally look to stay below advisory criteria at this time. 25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are already developing along and near coastal terminals. Expect convection to continue developing and spreading over southeast Texas and south Louisiana today as a weak easterly wave comes ashore in Louisiana. With storms, expect MVFR or IFR cigs, lowered VIS, heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning. Outside of storms, MVFR ceilings and southerly winds can be expected. Convection should come to an end with sundown as daytime heating ends. Overnight, winds should be calm with high ceilings and scattered instances of ground fog around 5 to 6SM. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Nocturnal showers have started developing over coastal waters. This trend will continue through the morning as a weak easterly wave moves inland on the Louisiana coastline. A widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected with heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning in and near thunderstorms. Weakness aloft is established Thursday and beyond allowing for the return of normal diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Light to occassionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will begin to increase late Saturday into Sunday as a pressure gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 97 76 95 76 / 40 10 30 10 LCH 91 80 91 78 / 70 10 50 0 LFT 94 80 94 78 / 80 10 60 0 BPT 94 79 94 78 / 50 10 30 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-032-033- 044-045-055-152-153. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>029. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259-260. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-259- 260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11