Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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695 FXUS64 KLCH 041131 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 631 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure currently situated overhead and over the northeast Gulf will both begin breaking down today. It appears the surface high is already beginning to back off considering shower and weak thunderstorm development along coastal communities this morning. Typical diurnal convection can be expected today within a densely moist airmass at the surface. Very similar to yesterday, if you find yourself beneath a thunderstorm, expect very heavy rainfall, lightning and some gusty winds. Rainfall should keep many areas in check for temperatures; mid 90s inland with low 90s near coastal areas. This won`t stop many areas from seeing high Heat Indices up to 111F. Where this may occur, a Heat Advisory is in effect. For those out and about for the Holiday, keep your heat precautions in mind and remember: When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! Ridging further breaks down on Friday opening the door for more widespread convection. Once again, not anticipating severe weather, but heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning can be expected with storms. With more widespread cloud cover and rainfall, the picture of Heat Indices isn`t as clear. Areas may warm to 105 to 108F in the afternoon. Indices over 108F aren`t as likely, so no Heat Headlines are in place for Friday. Saturday, a cool front nears the region bringing about another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms and temps in the low 90s for ALL! Back to back to back days of very efficient rain makers could start to exacerbate flooding conditions, thus the entire area has been painted into a Marginal (1 of 4) Level for the Excessive Rainfall Outlook Friday and Saturday. Where many storms cross, train or stall, flash flooding will be possible. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The overall theme of the long term is pretty much...rain, as elevated POPs are being carried in the long term grids each day beginning Sunday. The wrn Gulf region is generally expected to remain under the influence of a cntl CONUS trof through Wednesday. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary is progged to meander to our north. Additionally, plentiful moisture streaming around TC Beryl, forecast to make landfall somewhere in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley late in the weekend, is forecast to linger, with forecast soundings indicating mean RH values to 70 percent, mainly over our TX zones, and PWAT values up to 2.2 inches. With these ingredients in place, expect widely scattered showers/storms to develop with heating on Sunday. Monday looks largely like a repeat with similar elevated rain chances. Rain chances increase further for Tuesday/Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl drift nwd through cntl TX, while moisture further escalates as another wave (AL96?) shifts ewd through the srn Gulf, throwing moisture nwd as it approaches the Mexican coast. Regarding Beryl, it must be repeated that while confidence in its future track is improving, by no means is it an absolute and large deviations are not out of the question. The most likely impacts for our area remain minor coastal flooding, but should the track get adjusted further nwd in the coming days, those impacts will change/worsen...stay tuned. The good news in the long term is that with all the cloud cover/rainfall being forecast, temperatures are not looking to run as warm as during the days prior. Forecast highs generally top out in the lower 90s each day. Peak heat index values generally look to stay below advisory criteria at this time. 25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Nocturnal showers are developing and moving inland near coastal terminals. Ridging aloft should begin breaking down today, causing a further increase in convection across all terminals today. All coastal terminals are carrying VCSH through about 17Z, thereafter all terminals will carry at least VCTS. LFT and ARA may see a better coverage in storms due to moisture pooling in the area. With storms, expect MVFR or IFR cigs, lowered VIS, heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning. Outside of storms, MVFR ceilings and southerly winds can be expected. Conditions improve after sundown with a return to VFR ceilings and low winds. During overnight hours, some haze will be possible due to area fireworks displays. 11/Calhoun & .MARINE... Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure aloft will begin to weaken overhead today and Friday, allowing for the return of normal diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Coverage looks to again be fairly scattered today, but may become more widespread over the weekend as ridging overhead fully breaks down. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will begin to increase late Saturday into Sunday as a pressure gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region. 11/17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 76 95 73 / 40 20 60 40 LCH 91 79 93 78 / 60 10 50 30 LFT 93 80 94 78 / 70 10 60 30 BPT 94 78 95 77 / 40 10 30 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-152>154-252-253. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259-260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11